Ann Rowan , Anya M Schlich-Davies, Andrew N Ross, Duncan J Quincey, Vivi K Pedersen

Himalayan glaciers are projected to shrink by 53% to 70% during this century due to global climate change. However, the impact of future precipitation change on glacier change remains uncertain because mesoscale meteorology is not represented in current glacier models. We explore the effects of future changes in air temperature and precipitation by simulating the evolution of a benchmark glacier in the monsoon-influenced Nepal Himalaya using mesoscale climate-glacier modelling. Historical warming commits Khumbu Glacier to volume loss of 10–23% by 2100 CE. We show that while moderate future warming (RCP4.5) will lead to glacier volume loss of 70% by 2100 CE, the projected concurrent increase in precipitation will offset 34% of this change. However, extreme future warming (RCP8.5) will not be compensated by precipitation but will instead result in substantial ablation above 6,000 m and cause the highest glacier on Earth to vanish by 2160–2260 CE.