Ann Rowan, Anya M Schlich-Davies, Andrew N Ross, Duncan J Quincey, Vivi K Pedersen

Himalayan glaciers are projected to shrink by over 50% this century due to rising air temperatures. However, the impact of future precipitation change on glacier evolution remains uncertain. Here we explore these precipitation effects by simulating the future evolution of Khumbu Glacier in the monsoon-influenced Himalaya until 2300 CE. Khumbu Glacier is committed by historical warming to volume loss of 23% by 2100 CE. Future warming would increase volume loss up to 70%. We show that moderate warming (RCP4.5) will drive an increase in precipitation that offsets 34% of the potential volume lost due to rising air temperatures. However, extreme warming (RCP8.5) will not be compensated, but will instead drive substantial ablation above 6,000 m, causing the highest glacier on Earth to vanish between 2160 CE and 2260 CE.