Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales

David Fastovich, Stephen Meyers, Erin E Saupe, John Warren Williams , Maria Dornelas, Elizabeth M. Dowding, Seth Finnegan, Huai-Hsuan M. Huang, Lukas Jonkers, Wolfgang Kiessling, Ádám T Kocsis, Qijian Li, Lee Hsiang Liow, Lin Na, Amelia M Penny, Kate Pippenger, Johan Renaudie, Marina C Rillo, Jansen Smith, Manuel J. Steinbauer, Mauro Sugawara, Adam Tomašovỳch, Moriaki Yasuhara, Pincelli Hull

Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We develop a spectral analysis-based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 10¹ to 10⁵ years. We report similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149^-1 to 18,012^-1 years^-1). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797^-1 years^-1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4,650^-1 years^-1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, while vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149^-1 years^-1 may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity.