Andrew Gendaszek, Anya Leach, Kristin Jaeger

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of cold-water species. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support several cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer base flow between August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating this temperature distribution are not well understood. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and seven-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River basin located with Mount Rainier National Park. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected between 2010 and 2020. Significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. In addition, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of seven-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of main-stem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are three to four degrees Celsius warmer for tributaries but one to two degrees cooler for the main stem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale SSN model are attributed the upper White River SSN including water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream of the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional-scale model.