Juan Bartolomé García Martínez, Jeffray Behr, Joshua M. Pearce, David Denkenberger

Global catastrophic threats to the food system upon which human society depends are numerous. A nuclear war or volcanic eruption could collapse agricultural yields by inhibiting crop growth. Nuclear electromagnetic pulses or extreme pandemics could disrupt industry and mass-scale food supply by unprecedented levels. Global food storage is limited. What can be done?
This article presents the state of the field on interventions to maintain food production in these scenarios, aiming to prevent mass starvation and reduce the chance of civilizational collapse and potential existential catastrophe. The potential for rapid scaling, affordability, and large-scale deployment is reviewed for a portfolio of food production methods over land, water, and industrial systems. Special focus is given to proposing avenues for further research and technology development and to collating policy proposals.
Maintaining international trade and prioritizing crops for food instead of animal feed or biofuels is paramount. Both mature, proven methods (crop relocation, ruminants, greenhouses, seaweed, fishing, etc.) and novel resilient foods are characterized. A future research agenda is outlined, including scenario characterization, policy development, production ramp-up and economic analyses, and rapid deployment trials. Governments could implement national plans and task forces to address extreme food system risks, and invest in resilient food solutions to safeguard citizens against global catastrophic food failure.