Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970-2019)

Louis Delannoy, Alexandre Verzier, Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Felipe Benra, Magnus Nyström, Peter Søgaard Jørgensen

Polycrisis has emerged as a new property of the Anthropocene. Although sector-specific studies offer insights into the changing frequency and intensity of these disruptions, a comprehensive analysis remains absent, limiting a more integrated understanding of the polycrisis phenomenon. Addressing this gap, we develop and analyse a harmonized database capturing the occurrence of six categories of shocks (climatic, geophysical, ecological, economic, technological, and conflict-related) across 175 countries between 1970 and 2019. Our analysis reveals a significant rise in shock co-occurrences until 2000, particularly at the intersection of conflict, climate, and technological disruptions. After 2000, co-occurrence began plateauing or declining in all regions, yet at different levels. Our findings highlight the importance of a regionalized and typologically nuanced approach to understanding polycrisis. Our work also paves the way to an integration of polycrisis theory and multi-hazard methodologies for developing more effective and anticipatory polycrisis management.