Global coastal wetland expansion under accelerated sea-level rise is unlikely

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 2 of this Preprint.


Download Preprint


Torbjorn Tornqvist, Donald Cahoon, John Day, James Morris


Schuerch et al. (2018) [1] deserve credit for compiling a wide range of disparate, global datasets that will be instrumental in predicting future coastal wetland change. However, we challenge their projections that range from modest losses to substantial gains worldwide by the end of this century. Their modeling does not adequately capture the role of sediment supply which must be treated volumetrically, with profound implications for their projections. We anticipate that an appropriate modification will result in substantially different projections, with rates of coastal wetland loss that generally increase as a function of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), regardless of the human adaptation scenario. This is also in line with the findings from a precursor study [2] by a subset of the Schuerch et al. group.



Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability


Sea-level rise, Coastal wetlands


Published: 2019-07-16 15:41

Older Versions

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Add a Comment

You must log in to post a comment.


There are no comments or no comments have been made public for this article.