Simon Blouin, Florian Ulrich Jehn, David Denkenberger

Nuclear war poses catastrophic risks not only through its immediate effects and potential nuclear winter, but also through the disruption of industrial production on which modern civilization depends. In this study we estimate the reduction in global industrial output following a US-Russia nuclear war, as well as a more limited India-Pakistan exchange, by combining geospatial analysis with historical evidence of how localized industrial losses propagate through supply chains. A bilateral US-Russia nuclear war could destroy 3% of global industrial infrastructure, with cascading effects potentially reducing global industrial output by 25%. If high-altitude electromagnetic pulse attacks occur, the disruption to global industry could be even more severe, though such effects remain poorly understood. These disruptions would severely impair humanity's ability to meet basic needs and adapt to other nuclear war effects such as nuclear winter.