Easing population to 4 billion by 2200 would help people and nature

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Authors

Mark Keegan 

Abstract

The past century of increases in human population and resource consumption has produced some undesirable effects, ranging from environmental degradation to climate change to political unrest. We are accustomed to seeing these dependent variables charted with time on the x-axis. But this study presents metrics of biodiversity, consumption, and pollution and their extremely strong correlations when charted against human population size. Then we suggest that a more rapid yet non-coercive lowering of global Total Fertility Rates to 1.75 by 2050, and holding there, will produce many benefits for current and future generations of our own species and for nature. Among these benefits are reduced CO2 emissions, habitat recovery, protection of wild species, and reduced conflict over scarce resources.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W70W

Subjects

Environmental Studies

Keywords

world population growth, sustainability, Total fertility rate (TFR), population projection, demographic transition

Dates

Published: 2024-12-06 08:23

Last Updated: 2024-12-06 16:23

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Data Availability (Reason not available):
All data files are available at the figshare data base: https://figshare.com/s/76c20b78f80634ab4f1c The data underlying the results are also available from the references listed in the manuscript.