Mengmeng Cao, Kebiao Mao, Sayed M. Bateni, Jingming Chen, Essam Heggy, Jong-Seong Kug, Xinyi Shen

Existing climate studies mainly assessed the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings on Earth’s temperature. None of them has not evaluated the effect of the planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature. Here, we deconvolved the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and to forecast the latter at different time scales. Our results suggest that Earth’s revolution and rotation prompted ~75.4% and 15.9% of the observed Earth’s intra-annual temperature changes, while Moon’s revolution and other planet motions accounted for 8.3% and 0.3%, respectively. Planetary orbits contributed to ~11.5% of global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ~0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, planetary orbits may trigger ~0.25 °C of Earth’s cooling from 2027 to 2050, which is still far below the impact of CO2 and will not be enough to reverse the warming trend.