wei guangpu, Zhang wenjun , Zhu zhiheng, Gao yaxian, Yu xiaoyan

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) is a crucial ecological zone in China, facing significant environmental challenges, particularly climate change. To better understand vegetation dynamics in this region, this study examines vegetation cover trends from 2004 to 2023 and identifies their driving factors using an innovative kernel-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) dataset from MOD13Q1 V6.1 data in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Spatiotemporal dynamics in vegetation cover were assessed using Theil-Sen median trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Hurst exponent. Additionally, correlation analyses explored links between kNDVI and climate variables, including precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation (srad). Results revealed a northeast-to-west gradient in vegetation cover, with 35.36% of vegetation improving, 49.95% remaining stable, and 14.69% degrading. Future vegetation trends indicate 70.96% of the region has uncertain trajectories, while 29.04% shows potential for sustainable development. Among the climatic factors influencing vegetation cover, precipitation was the primary driver, followed by temperature and srad. Climatic factors were significant in western Hulunbuir and central Ulanqab, whereas non-climatic factors, including human activities and land-use changes, were dominant in Hulunbuir, Xing’an League, and Xilin Gol. These findings underscore the necessity for region-specific ecological management strategies integrating climatic and anthropogenic factors to enhance ecosystem resilience.