Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed.

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Authors

Hugo Yepes, Jean-Mathieu Nocquet, Benjamin Bernard, Pablo B. Palacios, Sandro Vaca, Santiago Aguaiza

Abstract

In the paper entitled “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system”, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 16th 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) and that their findings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we find: (1) the success rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5%; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/wk93r

Subjects

Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

GPS, Earthquake forecasting, Ecuador, gamma radiation, precursors, rainfall

Dates

Published: 2019-06-19 06:37

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License

GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1

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