Tri W. Hadi, Muhammad Rais Abdillah, Narizka N. Purwadani, Rusmawan Suwarman, Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono, Faiz R. Fajary, Madam T. Maulana, Dudy D. Wijaya

Cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) is characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds over south of the South China Sea in the western Maritime Continent. The CENS typically lasts a few days in boreal winter and is frequently reported as a crucial synoptic forcing of heavy rainfall and flood events over northern Java Island. The occurrence of CENS has been generally understood as an extension of northerly cold surge (CS) coming from East Asia. However, out of 117 CENS events identified over the last 42 years, only 59% of the events were induced by cold surges (CENS-CS). We further found that CENS occurred with no association to cold surges (CENS-noCS) are mostly attributed to several tropical variabilities (Madden-Julian Oscillation phases 4-7, mixed-Rossby gravity waves, equatorial Rossby waves, and tropical cyclones). These phenomena induce strengthening of northerly winds mainly by generating meridional southward pressure gradient force over the CENS region. In terms of potential impacts, precipitation anomalies over northern Java Island associated with CENS-CS are slightly larger than those of CENS-noCS but significant flood events had occurred following any CENS. These imply that both types of CENS are important for controlling hydrometeorological events over the region of interest.