From Rainfall to Rumors: Interpreting the 2024 Bangladesh Floods Through Numbers, Narratives, and Information Gaps

Puja Das, Auroop Ganguly, Nick Rabb, Kevin Smith, Shafiqul Islam

When severe floods struck southeastern Bangladesh in August 2024, competing explanationsemerged. Meteorological analysis revealed that extreme precipitation was exacerbated by the Madden‐JulianOscillation and jet stream dynamics. However, alternative narratives proliferated on social media, particularlyclaims that India deliberately released water from upstream dams. This study synthesizes hydrometeorologicaldata and social media analysis to examine the divergence between scientific evidence and social narratives.Despite hydrometeorological explanations, misinformation attributing floods to intentional dam releases gainedtraction because it aligned with existing sentiments in Bangladesh. While these narratives did not appear tomaterially impact disaster response in 2024, similar patterns elsewhere demonstrate the potential harm.Effective flood management requires aligning scientific data with narratives that motivate collective action. Weargue that both India and Bangladesh face mutual vulnerabilities that give misinformation its power but can alsofacilitate cooperation. Drawing on the water diplomacy literature, we propose a pilot flood early warninginitiative on the Feni and Gomati rivers, combining data sharing with community‐based outreach throughlocally trusted individuals and institutions, as a practical first step toward strengthening transboundary floodpreparedness, countering divisive misinformation, and achieving a flood‐resilient system.