Holocene oscillatory sea level: literature review and implications for imminent anthropogenic multi-metre transgression

The famous 1961 'Fairbridge Curve' of Holocene sea level (SL) shows metre-scale (up to ~5m) oscillations, based on a worldwide compilation of carbon-dated geological data-points. Dozens of later authors found further evidence for such fluctuations; while dozens of others, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), deny oscillations >50cm. The debate is settled here by (1) a review of the Holocene SL literature, exposing flaws in the techniques and assumptions used in constructing smooth SL curves, and (2) an exhaustive review (companion study by the author) of copious published English coastal archaeology, proving a ~4...  more

The famous 1961 'Fairbridge Curve' of Holocene sea level (SL) shows metre-scale (up to ~5m) oscillations, based on a worldwide compilation of carbon-dated geological data-points. Dozens of later authors found further evidence for such fluctuations; while dozens of others, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), deny oscillations >50cm. The debate is settled here by (1) a review of the Holocene SL literature, exposing flaws in the techniques and assumptions used in constructing smooth SL curves, and (2) an exhaustive review (companion study by the author) of copious published English coastal archaeology, proving a ~4-metre SL rise in only ~70 years (~430-500AD, early 'Dark Ages'), equating to Fairbridge's global 'Rottnest transgression', but much more precisely dated (dendrochronology, coins, pottery). Thus, the IPCC's opinion that global mean SL has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3,000 years is incorrect. This vindication of Fairbridge implies that IPCC's 'worst-case' predicted SL rise of 1.75m by 2100 is, in fact, unexceptional. Another companion study argues that 'Fairbridge-type' SL rises must be due to Antarctic ice-cliff-collapse events, attributable to warming by solar grand maxima, apart from the next collapse (anthropogenic), predicted to raise SL at least 3m by 2100.