Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)

Edward Byers , Michaela Werning, Mahe Perette, Niklas Schwind, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of integrated assessment model (IAM)IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal limited regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based on inputs of global mean air temperature pathways to calculate a range of climate impact driver (CID) indicess and exposure indicators metricsin gridded spatial and region-aggregated formats. The emulation is fast and versatile, moving towards producing batches of of climate impact indicatorsCID indices and exposure metrics to complement integrated assessment modelIAM scenarios thereby bridging the IPCC impacts (WGII) and mitigation (WGIII) communities. Our lightweight emulator produces both gridded and regionally-aggregated results taking us beyond the computationally-intensive constraints of super-computational global climate earth system and impact models. The approach allows to assess the combined outcome of a wide range of emission and socio-economic scenarios allowing for enabling a decomposition of drivers of uncertainty for future climate risks. While climate uncertainties are the primary concern through mid-century, our results indicates that socio-economic factors such as population growth may become the dominant drivers of risk by the end of the century. We demonstrate an application to IPCC scenarios to illustrate its potential further use, illustrating its potential utility while acknowledging methodological constraints and delineating a comprehensive roadmap for future development. These rapid climate risk emulation frameworks exhibit significant promise for facilitating cross-disciplinary integration and enhancing scientific inclusivity across diverse research communities.