Examining copper supply feasibility in decarbonization pathways: a mine-level dynamic approach

Gaël Parpan , Baptiste Andrieu, Olivier Vidal, Louis Delannoy, Hugo Le Boulzec, Matthieu Gervais, Yves Jegourel, Stéphane Delalande

Primary copper production capacity is a major concern in light of estimates of future demand. This issue is not sufficiently taken into account in models providing decarbonization pathways. Our study assesses the feasibility of SSPs basic drivers for primary copper requirements derived from the DyMEMDS model, alongside our projections of primary copper production capacities. We introduce a methodology for projecting primary copper production capacities based on a mine-by-mine analysis, including industrial constraints and reserves of each mine. Our results highlight a mismatch between primary copper requirements and production capacities, which could have a significant impact on the technology deployments required to keep pace with socioeconomic assumptions. We suggest that the decarbonization pathway modelling community align their scenarios with extractive industry constraints and consider resource efficiency strategies in order to propose more consistent scenarios to decision-makers, thereby mitigating the risk of climate action being slowed down by a copper supply shortage.