Forecasting During Volcanic Crises

Mark Bebbington , Sara Barsotti, Warner Marzocchi, Alessandro Tadini, Christina Widiwijayanti, Heather Wright

Forecasting during a volcanic crisis is vital to the preservation of life and mitigation of loss during eruption. Decisions on when, where and how to evacuate, where to send the evacuees, and when they can return, are all informed by forecasts of impending volcanic activity. We review input data and models that underlie short-term forecasts during an eruption crisis, software and tools applied, how forecasts are framed, ways to integrate data during a crisis, and several case studies of forecasting in action. The workflow during a crisis can be simplified by precalculation of possible hazard impacts using long-term forecasting techniques. Short-term forecasts should be evaluated after a crisis in order to improve methodology and utility of forecast information. As data availability increases, computational tools are developed, unrest patterns are identified, and underlying processes better understood, there will continue to be improvements in volcanic crisis forecasting and decision support tools.