Heatwave Characteristics in Different Ecosystems across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations

Serhan Yeşilköy 

Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. This extreme weather event is characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures and has caused substantial economic damage and affecting millions. During heatwave events, agricultural and forest lands are affected by intensified thermal stress and water scarcity, impacting plant health, productivity, and ecosystem stability. This study revealed the projected heatwave changes in frequency and duration over agricultural and forest areas in Türkiye based on the ensemble mean of 23 general circulation models through the two latest CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Agricultural and forest lands are projected to experience dramatic increases in summer heatwave events and prolonged durations throughout two long-term periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) during 21st century, particularly between 36°N and 38°N latitudes. Trend analysis using the triple-ITA method confirms unstable positive trends in historical heatwave metrics over these ecosystems, transitioning to stable positive trends in future projections. These findings emphasize the escalating risk of extreme heat events for critical ecosystems in Türkiye.