Field to Flight: Migration Dynamics Amidst Climate/Weather Driven Crop Yield Fluctuations in Burkina Faso

Kristine Belesova, Pascal Zabre, Michael Opata, Alie Sie, Rainer Sauerborn, Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle , Joacim Rocklöv

Climate change is anticipated to significantly affect human migration, driven by factors such as crop failures, rising sea levels, and water insecurity. The African continent is particularly vulnerable due to its population's limited adaptive capacity. However, collecting migration data is challenging, especially in regions lacking reliable demographic and epidemiological census data. Consequently, empirical evidence linking migration patterns to climate variability in Africa is scarce. We analysed data from 196,320 individuals in rural Burkina Faso from 1994 to 2016, assessing the relationship between weather-induced crop yield variations and migration. We found that annual reductions in crop yields were strongly associated with increased out-migration, particularly among male farmers, individuals with lower wealth, and those with prior migration experience. These findings underscore the need for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce forced migration and displacement in the context of climate change.