Duration of Super-Emitting Oil & Gas Methane Sources

Daniel Cusworth , Daniel Bon, Daniel J. Varon , Alana Ayasse, Gregory Asner, Gregory Asner, Evan David Sherwin , Riley Duren, Sebastien Biraud

The duration of super-emitting events in oil & gas basins remains poorly understood but is key for informing reporting programs and mitigation strategies. Carbon Mapper conducted intensive aerial surveys from April 30 to May 17, 2024, over the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin to estimate super-emitter durations directly from observations, covering 276,000 wells, 1100 compressor stations, 175 gas processing plants, and 27,000 km of pipeline. During the campaign, we detected over 500 super-emitting sources and surveyed over 300 of these sources repeatedly. Over the repeatedly surveyed region, we quantified total emissions by integrating individual events with observationally constrained event durations (5.98 -14.7 Gg CH4) and compared this estimate to the total emissions derived from basin average snapshots (12.7  0.92 Gg CH4). We show that this emissions gap can plausibly be reconciled through assumptions on missed detections, particularly given the strong relationship between characteristic event duration, detection frequency, and diurnal variability. We attribute each event to specific infrastructure types and find that emissions from compressors were detected most frequently and generally exhibit long emission durations. A small subset of sources (18 total), mostly compressors, persistently emitted throughout the entire campaign, representing a near-term opportunity for mitigation. Sustained and frequent wide-area monitoring is crucial for capturing rare, but significant super-emitter events that, together with other sources, drive basin-level variability and emission intensity.