Aligning emissions with decisionmaking: estimating urban contributions to global carbon dioxide emissions

Ying Yu, Diego Manya, Angel Hsu

Urban areas are widely viewed as central to the global carbon challenge, yet estimates of the urban contribution to global CO2 emissions vary substantially because studies define “urban” and allocate emissions using different boundaries and accounting perspectives. We address this challenge by introducing a globally consistent, administrative-boundary framework that aligns emissions with governance units and distinguishes urban centres, peri-urban areas, and rural areas across all subnational administrative divisions worldwide. This governance-aligned classification provides a consistent basis for urban emissions typologies, enabling comparable urban emission quantification across regions and accounting perspectives. Combining high-resolution territorial emissions inventories (EDGAR, ODIAC, CEDS) with global consumption-based footprints (GGMCF), we estimate that in 2022 urban jurisdictions (urban centres + peri-urban areas) account for 72-76% of global territorial CO2 emissions, with urban centres contributing 30-37% and 39-42% from peri-urban areas. Using consumption-based data, we estimate that urban areas account for ~82% of CO2 emissions in 2015. We further show that the sectoral composition of urban territorial emissions has shifted from 1970 to 2022, with the energy sector increasing in prominence and relative contributions from buildings and industry declining. Finally, comparing territorial and consumption-based estimates across subnational units, we map consumption–production imbalances and find that 63% of regions are net embodied-emissions importers. These results provide a critical update to global assessments of urban emissions and demonstrate the value of pairing territorial and consumption-based accounting on governance-relevant boundaries for interpreting responsibility and identifying mitigation leverage points.