Mapping the health harm of Bangladeshi brick kilns

Sumil Thakrar, Doreen Boyd, Xueying Yu, Sheikh Rafi Ahmed, Martin Mattsson

Bangladesh suffers from poor air quality, with brick kilns as major contributors that remain difficult to regulate. We combine remotely-sensed data, machine learning, and air-quality models to locate 9,187 clay brick kilns (2014–2024), estimating their technology, activity status, and health effects. Active kilns peaked in 2019 and have since declined by 4% annually. Kiln emissions cause approximately 3,730 (764–11,890) excess deaths yearly (30% lower than 2019), with 25% of deaths attributable to 8% of kilns, suggesting potential for targeted intervention. Current proximity-based regulations prove ineffective proxies for health impacts. Our resulting Pollution Source Prioritization System, now used by the government to allocate scarce enforcement resources, demonstrates how satellite data and air quality models can enhance environmental policy even where state capacity is weak.