Separate sectoral decarbonization policies accelerate climate action but could jeopardize key sustainability targets

Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Chao Jin, Haifeng Liu, Mingfa Yao, Yan Yin, Sandylove Afrane, Xuan Zhang, Zhangming Ge, Humphrey Adun, Page Kyle, Jay Fuhrman, Olusola Bamisile, Michael Dioha, Raphael Wentemi Apeaning, David T Ho, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon 

The Paris Agreement grants countries flexibility in designing their pathways to net-zero emissions, yet most have focused on economy-wide, cost-effective approaches without clearly defining the role of sectoral emission reductions and/or carbon dioxide removal (CDR). These blanket strategies prioritize low-cost sectors, leaving significant residual emissions and relying on uncertain, largely unproven CDR technologies to bridge the gap—an inherently risky approach.
In this study, we introduce a new framework that incorporates the explicit role of sector decarbonization. We examine three variations of sector-specific policies: selective (SECT), universal (SECT-AMB), and equity-informed (SECT-FAIR), and compare them with a conventional economy-wide carbon pricing scenario (CONV), all aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Our findings reveal that by 2060, sector-specific policies could reduce residual GHG emissions by 6–12 GtCO₂/year and lower gross CDR requirements as well by 6–12 GtCO₂/year compared to CONV. They also achieve slightly lower peak warming (by 0.006–0.01°C) and cut air pollution (PM2.5) by over 50%. However, these gains are accompanied by trade-offs, including higher transition costs, increased demand for biomass, water, uranium, and fertilizer, and potential risks to biodiversity from forest loss and land-use shifts.
To maximize the climate benefits of sector-specific policies with no or limited sustainability impacts, it is crucial to carefully design and implement these policies with a focus on minimizing resource demands, protecting biodiversity, and addressing potential trade-offs, while also ensuring that they complement, rather than hinder, efforts to achieve net-zero emissions and climate stability.