Mitigating Methane in Jordan: National Inventory, Emission Projections, and Policy Pathways

Alham Al-Shurafat , Fayez Abdulla, Ayman Sharafat

BACKGROUND

Jordan lacks a comprehensive national methane inventory integrating multi-sectoral sources, projections, and policy pathways. Despite methane’s outsized climate impact (28× CO2e over 100 years) and contribution to health-harming ozone, existing local studies focus narrowly on waste sector point sources, neglecting agriculture (19% of emissions) and energy (10%). This gap impedes evidence-based integration of methane mitigation into climate and health policies.

OBJECTIVE

This study establishes Jordan’s first national methane inventory, projects emissions to 2050, quantifies sector-specific mitigation potentials, and evaluates policy pathways for inclusion in revised climate commitments.

METHODS

Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform–Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC), we quantified 2022 baseline emissions across energy, transport, agriculture, and solid waste/wastewater sectors and projected trends to 2050 based on population and GDP growth. Data were sourced from national ministries (2019–2023), with IPCC emission factors applied. Stakeholder-validated mitigation measures were modeled under three scenarios (short- [2022–2029], mid- [2030–2040], long-term [2041–2050]) against a business-as-usual (BAU) projection. Methane impacts were converted to CO2e using GWP100 = 28.

RESULTS

Baseline emissions (2022) totaled 6,978.9 Gg CO2e/a, dominated by solid waste/wastewater (70%, 4,886.2 Gg), followed by agriculture (18.8%, 1,308.7 Gg) and energy (10.3%, 720.2 Gg). Under BAU, emissions rise 86% by 2050 (~13,000 Gg CO2e/a), driven by population growth (11.3M→19M) and extreme urbanization (91.8% urban). Mitigation scenarios achieve 39.3% reduction by 2030 and 51.3% by 2050. The waste sector offers the highest cumulative reduction (4,600.8 Gg CO2e/a by 2050 via landfill gas capture and biogas), followed by energy (1,389.3 Gg CO2e/a via renewables and efficiency). Jordan’s methane profile is distinct—waste emissions exceed global averages due to urbanization and refugee pressures.