A century of flow and surge history of Sít’ Tlein(Malaspina Glacier), Southeast Alaska

Victor Devaux-Chupin , Martin Truffer, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G Loso, Michael Steven Christoffersen, Michael Daniel, Brandon Scott Tober, Christopher F Larsen, John W Holt

Sít' Tlein (Malaspina Glacier), located in Southeast Alaska, has a complex flow history. This piedmont glacier, the largest in the world of its kind, is fed by three main tributaries that all exhibit similar flow patterns, yet with varying surge cycles. The piedmont lobe is dramatically reshaped by surges that occur at approximately decadal timescales. By combining historical accounts with modern remote sensing data we derive a surge history over the past century. We leverage the Stochastic Matrix Factorization, a novel data analysis and interpolation technique, to process and interpret large datasets of glacier surface velocities. A variant of the Principal Component Analysis allows us to uncover spatial and temporal patterns in ice dynamics. We show that Sít' Tlein displays a wide range of behaviors, spanning quiescence to surge with seasonal to decadal variations of ice flow direction and magnitude. We find that surges dominate the velocity dataset's variance (spanning 1984 to 2021), while seasonal variations represent a much smaller part of the variance. However, despite the regular surge pulses, the glacier lobe is far from equilibrium, and widespread retreat of the glacier is inevitable, even without further climate warming.