Satellite-based assessment of methane emissions from the Darvaza gas crater

Adriana Valverde , Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate , Javier Gorroño , Zhipeng Pei, Luis Guanter

Methane (CH₄) is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, and the gas-burning Darvaza crater in Turkmenistan is a rare and persistent emitter. There are substantial uncertainties regarding the date of the crater formation (assumed to be either in 1963 or 1971), the ignition of the fire, and the relation between the fire intensity and methane release. In this study, we reconstruct the fire history using historical Landsat imagery, identifying that combustion began between late 1987 and early 1988. To quantify current methane emissions, we used hyperspectral satellites (EnMAP, PRISMA, EMIT, GF-5A, and ZY-1E) to detect 44 methane plumes between 2020 and 2025, with emission rates ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 kg/h. These observations indicate annual emissions of several thousand tonnes, and over these five years, we estimate a total of 71 ± 21 kt of CH₄. Extrapolating this annual amount since the crater's formation suggests total emissions above 900 ± 300 kt. Additionally, temporal analysis reveals a gradual decline in flaring intensity, although no apparent correlation with methane release was identified. This integrated analysis reduces key uncertainties about the origin and behavior of the Darvaza crater and contributes to a better understanding of long-term natural-anthropogenic methane emissions and their environmental implications.