Carbon removal trading can promote economic growth in the Global South but could undermine food and energy security

Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Chao Jin, Haifeng Liu, Mingfa Yao, Zhangming Ge, Sandylove Afrane, Raphael Wentemi Apeaning, Xuan Zhang, Zhang Xingying, Humphrey Adun, Jay Fuhrman, Yang Ou, Page Kyle, David Morrow, David T Ho, Joeri Rogelj, Haewon McJeon 

A fundamental mismatch between countries’ carbon dioxide removal (CDR) responsibilities and their domestic capacities to fulfil them poses a major challenge to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Interregional CDR trade offers a solution, yet there has been no quantitative assessment of how such trade could reshape the economies of exporting regions and impact their economy–food–energy systems. Here we address this gap by integrating country-level CDR trading into a global integrated assessment model, enabling Global South countries to export carbon removal credits to the Global North in exchange for financial transfers. We find that by 2060, the Global South could export approximately 5 GtCO₂ per year in international CDR credits, generating US$3.1 trillion annually in financial transfers and creating 17 million jobs in the CDR sector. However, by 2060, imports of biomass, natural gas, beef, and corn in the Global South could rise by 36%, 18%, 3%, and 2%, respectively