Screening Global Solar and Wind Energy Investment Potential Accounting for Drought and Surplus

Mengjie Zhang, Adam Nayak , Upmanu Lall 

Climate-induced variability of solar and wind energy impacts renewable electricity scaling. Long duration renewable energy droughts, i.e., extended periods of renewable supply deficits, lead to contract penalties or use of thermo-electric sources, while long duration surpluses result in curtailment or in low energy prices and revenue. We present the first global assessment of the implied financial risk for solar and wind deployment due to droughts and surpluses. A seasonally varying threshold is identified at each location to represent reliable contractible production. Cumulative deficits and surpluses and their durations relative to this threshold are identified as proxies for financial investment risk. We consider co-variations in solar and wind outputs to identify their potential for amplifying or buffering deficits/surpluses. Strategic regions for contractible wind and solar energy potential and associated drought/surplus severity and duration are identified globally to inform future investments and risks.