Assessing uncertainty in source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling: Application to the Canning Basin, Australia

Jiayuan Huang, Tapan Mukerji

This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such as vitrinite reflectance, transformation ratio, temperature, and pore pressure. Application to the Goldwyer III unit in the Canning Basin, Australia, reveals that the source rock is within the oil to wet gas window, with substantial but incomplete transformation in the studied well locations. Sensitivity analysis identifies Cretaceous erosion and heat flow as the dominant controls on thermal maturity, while the transformation ratio is also strongly influenced by the hydrocarbon generation kinetics model. Comparison with rock physics inversion and Tmax-based maturity calculations demonstrates that Monte Carlo basin modeling significantly reduces uncertainty by incorporating geological constraints and process-based modeling. This integrated framework improves the reliability of source rock property assessments and offers a valuable tool for exploration risk reduction.

This manuscript has been accepted for publication in Marine Geoscience and Energy Resources. The title of this manuscript has been updated to match the published journal version. Please cite the published version:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marger.2026.207657