From Maps to Mandates: Multitemporal Vegetation Cover Analysis as a Tool to Evaluate Environmental Judicial Decisions

Juan Camilo Ríos-Orjuela , Ana María Medina-Sánchez, William Gonzalez-Daza, Francisco Villa-Rojas, Mauricio Madrigal-Pérez

This study examines the use of multitemporal vegetation cover analysis as a tool to assess the ecological effectiveness of judicial decisions that recognize the rights of nature, using Colombia’s 2016 T-622 decision on the Atrato River as a case study. Using satellite data from MapBiomas and generalized additive models (GAMs), we evaluated changes in ten types of vegetation cover between 2006 and 2023 across collective territories governed by Afro-Colombian community councils and Indigenous reservations. Our results reveal a sustained loss of natural cover, particularly in community councils, driven by expanding mining and infrastructure activities, while Indigenous reservations experienced more limited transformations. We identified distinct patterns of change linked to historical, political, and social factors such as armed conflict, extractive concessions granted without prior communities consultation, and differing governance systems. Despite the legal recognition of the river as a rights-bearing entity, territorial impacts persist—highlighting the need to strengthen monitoring mechanisms, incorporate ecological indicators from the outset of legal rulings, and anchor implementation in environmental and ethno-territorial justice frameworks. Our findings demonstrate that, when properly contextualized, vegetation cover analysis can provide critical evidence to evaluate the material effectiveness of judicial decisions in biocultural territories.