High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 60% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Korea by 2035

Hyuntae Choi , Haewon McJeon , Sangin Park

Under the Paris Agreement’s ratchet mechanism, countries are expected to enhance their nationally determined
contributions (NDCs), including new targets for 2035. For Korea, one of the world’s largest CO2 emitters, the
challenge is to strengthen its existing policy framework to not only ensure the achievement of its 2030 NDC
but also support a more ambitious 2035 pathway. This study employs an integrated assessment model to
simulate Korea’s greenhouse gas emissions pathway under existing policies, including the Carbon Neutrality &
Green Growth Basic Plan, the Basic Electricity Plan, and the Core Technology Development Program for Carbon
Neutrality. In addition, we develop an enhanced policy scenario reflecting highly ambitious yet feasible measures
across all sectors. We find that current policies can reduce emissions by 34% (with a range of 30% to 41%)
below 2018 levels by 2035—insufficient to achieve the 2030 NDC. In contrast, the enhanced scenario enables a
60% (with a range of 54% to 64%) reduction without reliance on international offsets. Key drivers include an
accelerated coal phase-out, rapid deployment of offshore wind power, restrictions on lifetime extensions of blast
furnace capacity, and strengthened zero-emission building standards. These findings provide policy-relevant insights to inform the formulation of a more ambitious and achievable 2035 NDC for Korea.