Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Formation of Seaward-dipping Reflectors in Volcanic Margins: Insights from High-resolution Visco-elasto-plastic Geodynamic Models with Extrusive Surface Processes
Published: 2025-11-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic reflection data from volcanic margins show thick packages of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDRs) that are commonly interpreted as buried subaerial lava flows. The origins of SDRs remain debated with proposed mechanisms including (1) syn-kinematic extrusion of lava flows on extended continental crust, (2) progressive rotation of subaerial lava flows due to volcanic loading and magmatic [...]
Estimating the Global Oil-Gas Methane Emission Rate Distribution at Facility Scale using Multiple Satellite Systems
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We estimate the global oil and gas (OG) emission rate distribution above ~20 kg h-1 at facility scale using 16,294 quantified OG methane emission rates detected from five high-resolution satellite instrument/data processing combinations in 2024 and 2025 (GHGSat/GHGSat, Tanager/Carbon Mapper, EMIT/Carbon Mapper, Sentinel-2/IMEO-MARS, Landsat/IMEO-MARS). We find that the emission rate distribution [...]
Characterization of historical rainfall patterns: linear segmentation and quadratic bifurcation
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This article proposes a method for characterizing rainfall transitions based on historical series. Two synthetic parameters are analyzed: the annual or seasonal amount of rainfall (RR) and the median of daily rainfall (m). This median is estimated by means of a log-logistic adjustment (Fisk), ensuring a robust measurement of the daily rainfall distribution. Two complementary approaches are used [...]
Foreshock Behaviors and Mainshock Rupture Properties Associated with the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The July 29 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake ruptured the plate interface off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Following the mainshock, tsunamis were recorded in multiple countries along the Pacific Ocean boundary and its islands, along with the eruption of several volcanoes in Kamchatka. The mainshock was preceded by a strong foreshock sequence [...]
Retrospective Detection of Seismic Precursors Using Multi-Scale Energy Curvature
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Energy curvature controls catastrophic failure in seismic systems. We show this through a self-normalizing logarithmic functional Fω = ω(t)² · log(1 + |ω(t)| / median(|ω|)), where ω is the second derivative of seismic energy release. When F stays bounded, the system remains stable. When F diverges, rupture becomes more probable. Our precursor detection method combines spectral analysis using [...]
Short-term morphological response of rubble coral islands to the impact of a small tropical cyclone
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm events with the potential to cause significant damage to coral reef and island ecosystems. The evolution of coral rubble (shingle) islands within these ecosystems relies on the complex eco-morphodynamic relationship between the supply of biogenic sediment from the reef and subsequent transport by hydrodynamic forces. Storms have the potential to alter [...]
A First Principles Critique of the Back Calculation Method: Understanding and Assessing the Alteration of Atmospheric Gases Trapped in Ancient Fluid Inclusions
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The extraction of atmospheric gases from fluid inclusions has emerged as an extremely promising approach for directly constraining the composition of Earth's ancient atmospheres. However, the veracity of data obtained from these inclusions critically depends on how well one can account for the effects of physical chemistry and post-depositional alteration. The Back Calculation Method (BCM) [...]
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
Computation to Choose a Future: Planetary Stewardship in the Age of AI
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The accelerating transformations of the Anthropocene demand governance systems capable of anticipating and steering complex, nonlinear Earth-system dynamics. Existing models optimize for likely trajectories rather than exploring a broader set of futures. This commentary introduces the concept of Computational Foresight (CF): an integrative framework combining artificial intelligence, simulation, [...]
Numerical calculation of coastal trapped wave modes
Published: 2025-11-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A numerical method is developed to calculate coastal trapped wave (CTW) modes in the low-frequency limit ω ≪ f. The modes are solutions to a 2-dimensional eigenvalue problem. Useful properties like orthogonality are derived from the bilinear form associated with the operator of the eigenvalue problem. Our formulation uses the z coordinates and the CTW equation is discretized with a [...]
Barrier vulnerability following outwash: A balance of overwash and dune gap recovery
Published: 2025-11-23
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Existing barrier evolution models only simulate storm impacts from landward-driven flows (overwash), neglecting the impacts of seaward-directed flows (outwash). Here, we modify an existing model to incorporate outwash processes. We find that outwash enhances barrier vulnerability (the tendency to drown) over decadal timescales by scarring the island interior, creating lower, narrower landforms. [...]
New insights into the cooling of the oceanic lithosphere from surface-wave tomographic inferences
Published: 2025-11-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
How oceanic plates cool and thicken with age remains a subject of debate, with several thermal models supported by apparently contradictory data. Combining a novel imaging technique that balances resolution and uncertainty with finite-frequency surface-wave measurements, we build tomographic model SS3DPacific to revisit the cooling style of the oceanic lithosphere beneath the Pacific ocean. [...]
Simulation of the Impacts of Spring Diversions on Streamflow in the Strawberry Creek Watershed, San Bernardino County, California, Using an Integrated Hydrological Model
Published: 2025-11-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Strawberry Creek watershed, situated in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the impact of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this [...]
Wetter Winters, Drier Summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections
Published: 2025-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change is expected to impact hydrological regimes worldwide, including the Pacific Northwest of the United States. This study investigates how climate change will affect river discharge in the Puget Sound region of the State of Washington, with a focus on King and Pierce Counties. We simulated river discharge under historical and future conditions using the physically based, spatially [...]
Morphological Signatures of Planetary Fusion: A Unifying Framework for Earth's Deep Heterogeneities
Published: 2025-11-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ABSTRACT Studies show that the theoretical feasibility, described in the literature, of gravitational interactions between celestial bodies under certain conditions may result in collisions with complete fusion of masses is acknowledged. Accordingly, the objective is to characterize their long-term structural and biological consequences. This study presents a testable conceptual model in which [...]