Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Canadian emissions and unconventional oil production exceed the 2°C global warming scenario
Published: 2021-06-01
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Canada could highly impact the climate, as it possesses the world’s third largest resources of unconventional oil. This paper evaluates in three ways whether Canada is respecting a scenario of fossil fuel production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limiting warming to 2.0 °C by 2100. Firstly, McGlade and Ekins (2015) proposed a model providing production budgets for each fossil fuel producing [...]
Hydrology Research Articles are Becoming More Topically Diverse
Published: 2021-06-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We used Natural Language Processing (NLP) to assess topic diversity in all research articles (∼75,000) from eighteen water science and hydrology journals published between 1991 and 2019. We found that individual water science and hydrology research articles are becoming increasingly interdisciplinary in the sense that, on average, the number of equally-common topics represented in individual [...]
Iron oxide copper-gold (IOCG) deposits – A review (part 1): Settings, mineralogy, ore geochemistry and classification
Published: 2021-06-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Characteristics of ten of the world’s metallogenic provinces hosting iron oxide Cu-Au (IOCG) deposits have been critically assessed, including their geological and tectonothermal evolution, alteration-mineralisation parageneses, and ore geochemistry. A new classification framework is proposed in which IOCG deposits form the major part of a family of deposits within Cu-Au-Fe (CGI) mineral systems. [...]
European carbon storage resource requirements of climate change mitigation targets
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As a part of climate change mitigation plans in Europe, CO2 storage scenarios have been reported for the United Kingdom and the European Union with injection rates reaching 75 – 330 MtCO2 yr-1 by 2050. However, these plans are not constrained by geological properties or growth rates with precedent in the hydrocarbon industry. We use logistic models to identify growth trajectories and the [...]
Novel sensor array helps to understand submarine cable faults off West Africa
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seabed telecommunication cables can be damaged or broken by powerful seafloor flows of sediment (called turbidity currents), which may runout for hundreds of kilometres into the deep ocean. These flows have the potential to affect multiple cables near-simultaneously over very large areas, so it is more challenging to reroute traffic or repair the cables. However, cable-breaking turbidity currents [...]
Quantifying the influence of conduit inclination on Taylor Bubble behaviour in basaltic magmas.
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The ascent of single Taylor bubbles suspended in a range of Newtonian liquids, scaled to mimic basaltic magmas, within vertical and inclined tubes has been studied experimentally over the range 0° to 70° (where 0° is vertical and 90° is horizontal). Using measurements of Taylor bubble parameters (ascent velocity and film thickness) and morphology, alongside dimensionless numbers, we show that [...]
Non-stationary analysis of rogue wave probability over a shoal
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Non-equilibrium evolution of wave fields, as occurring over sudden bathymetry variations, can produce rogue seas with anomalous wave statistics. We handle this process by modifying the Rayleigh distribution through the energetics of second-order theory and a weakly non-stationarity reformulation of the Khintchine theorem. The probability model in unsteady conditions is then probed against [...]
Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many irrigated agricultural areas seek to prolong the lifetime of their groundwater resources by reducing pumping. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the long-term effectiveness of conservation initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated, simplified surrogate groundwater model to: 1) analyze aquifer [...]
Detection of Interannual Ensemble Forecast Signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using Atmospheric Circulation Regimes
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To study the forced variability of atmospheric circulation regimes, the use of model ensembles is often necessary for identifying statistically significant signals as the observed data constitute a small sample and are thus strongly affected by the noise associated with sampling uncertainty. However, the regime representation is itself affected by noise within the atmosphere, which can make it [...]
Uncertainty analysis in machine learning for lithofacies classification and porosity prediction
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recently, machine learning has been widely and successfully used by geoscientists to solve typical inverse problems. However, the uncertainty related to the learned model is not properly analysed, and sometimes a simple activation function is applied to provide posterior probability. To address this problem, variance of machine learning models is calculated that can provide additional information [...]
Defining a Sustainable Development Target Space for 2030 and 2050
Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resource Economics, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
By adopting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to an agenda for achieving a prosperous, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable future for all1. This ambition, however, also exposes a critical knowledge gap since science-based insights on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously are lacking. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could enable [...]
Modelled Soil Temperature Sensitivity to Variable Snow and Vegetation Conditions in Low-Relief Coastal Mountains, Nunatsiavut and NunatuKavut, Labrador
Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Other Applied Mathematics, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding permafrost vulnerability and resilience to climate warming is critical for predicting impacts on northern communities and ecosystems. The thermal characteristics of near-surface permafrost are influenced by effects from overlying vegetation and snow cover, both of which are changing in northern environments. The association between vegetation and snow is important in the coastal [...]
Meteorites that produce K-feldspar-rich ejecta blankets correspond to mass extinctions.
Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geology, Other Planetary Sciences, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meteorite impacts load the atmosphere with dust and cover the Earth‘s surface with debris. They have long been debated as a trigger of mass extinctions through Earth‘s history. Impact winters generally last <100 years, whereas ejecta blankets persist for 10^3-10^5 years. Here we show that only meteorite impacts that emplaced ejecta blankets rich in K-feldspar (Kfs) correlate to Earth system [...]
What sets aeolian dune height?
Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Earth's major sand seas are often populated with giant dunes, up to hundreds of meters in height and kilometers in wavelength. These massive sediment piles, visible from space on our planet and across the Solar System, indicate that conditions for sand transport have persisted for millenia. Unraveling how giant dunes form therefore has implications for understanding atmospheric flows and climatic [...]
Consensus-Based Rock Glacier Inventorying in the Torngat Mountains, Northern Labrador
Published: 2021-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Torngat Mountains of northern Labrador are an Arctic cordilleran mountain range located at the southern limit of the Canadian Arctic. Sparse observations of periglacial landforms including rock glaciers and ice-cored moraines imply that permafrost may be widespread, but limited in situ information is available for the region. In this study, we provide the first comprehensive feature inventory [...]