Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
How waves are accelerating global coastal overtopping
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The world’s coastal areas are home to about 10% of the human population and support unique and dynamic ecosystems, offering € trillions worth of environmental and societal benefits. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are however exacerbating devastating hazards such as episodic coastal flooding, the magnitudes of which remain highly uncertain to date. This study, for the first time, [...]
Geomagnetic field variability: geomagnetic dynamo and helical distributed chaos
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It is shown that helicity dynamics dominates the thermal convection-driven geomagnetic field variability. The notion of the distributed chaos has been used for this purpose. The large-scale circulation in the Earths outer (metallic liquid) core is especially sensitive to the helicity dynamics and its chaotic reversals can be associated with the reversals of the mean helicity sign (the ergodic [...]
Unmixing and mapping components of Northern Ireland’s geochemical composition using FastICA and random forests
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is an increasing trend for the collection of multi-sensory quantitative data to support the mapping of geology and environment. In the United Kingdom and Ireland this trend has been led by the Tellus mapping programmes; large scale multidisciplinary surveys which have collected quantitative data by a combination of geophysical survey from the air and geochemical survey on the ground. Such [...]
Benchmarking and Inter-Comparison of Sentinel-1 InSAR velocities and time series
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Different InSAR algorithms and methods produce velocities and times series that are not identical, even using the same data for the same area. This inconsistency can cause confusion and be a barrier to uptake and widespread use of the data in the commercial sector. With the widespread availability of Sentinel-1 radar data and a suite of new algorithms in the commercial and academic sectors, it is [...]
Aerosols bias daily weather prediction
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Weather prediction is essential to human daily life. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are still subject to substantial forecast bias and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosols, despite of the consensus of aerosols as the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we show aerosols as an important driver biasing daily temperature [...]
The timing of magmatism and subsequent alteration of basaltic rocks cored at the base of IODP Site U1513, Naturaliste Plateau, southwestern Australia
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An 82.2 m thick sequence of basaltic rocks was recovered from a deep-sea core on the eastern flank of the Naturaliste Plateau, offshore southwestern Australia during International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 369. The basaltic rocks were cored at the base of IODP Site U1513 and represent the acoustic basement of the Mentelle Basin. The recovered materials consist of subaerial to [...]
Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops (accepted 01.07.2020)
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Agriculture, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Life Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Plant Sciences
We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations, and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission [...]
EC-Earth Global Climate Simulations: Ireland’s Contributions to CMIP6
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The global climate simulations described in this report constitute Ireland’s contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) (phase 6) (CMIP6) and will be included for assessment in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Since 1995, CMIP has co-ordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international [...]
A Reduced Order Approach for Probabilistic Inversions of 3D Magnetotelluric Data I: General Formulation
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Simulation-based probabilistic inversions of 3D magnetotelluric (MT) data are arguably the best option to deal with the non-linearity and non-uniqueness of the MT problem. However, the computational cost associated with the modeling of 3D MT data has so far precluded the community from adopting and/or pursuing full probabilistic inversions of large MT datasets. In this contribution, we present a [...]
Estimating Submicron Aerosol Mixing State at the Global Scale with Machine Learning and Earth System Modeling
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computational Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study integrates machine learning and particle-resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict sub-micron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only ESM bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. Here we used PartMC as the [...]
A radial hydraulic fracture with pressure-dependent leak-off
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
This paper investigates the problem of a radial (or penny-shaped) hydraulic fracture propagating in a permeable reservoir. In particular, we consider the fluid exchange between the crack and ambient porous media as a pressure-dependent process. In most of the existing models, the fluid exchange process is represented as one-dimensional pressure-independent leak-off described by Carters law. We [...]
Constraining crustal silica on ancient Earth
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurately quantifying the composition of continental crust on Hadean and Archean Earth is critical to our understanding of the physiography, tectonics, and climate of our planet at the dawn of life. One longstanding paradigm involves the growth of a relatively mafic planetary crust over the first 1-2 billion years of Earth history, implying a lack of modern plate tectonics, a paucity of [...]
Unrealistic phytoplankton bloom trends in global lakes derived from Landsat measurements
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Given its advantages for synoptic and large-scale observations, satellite remote sensing has been widely used to effectively monitor the water quality of inland and coastal environments. Using satellite-derived reflectance data from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (L5TM) as a proxy for algal bloom intensity, Ho et al. 1 showed an increase in peak summertime bloom intensity in 68% of the 71 large [...]
Do olivine crystallization temperatures faithfully record mantle temperature variability?
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Crystallization temperatures of primitive olivine crystals have been widely used as both a proxy for, or an intermediate step in calculating, mantle temperatures. The olivine-spinel aluminum-exchange thermometer has been applied to samples from mid-ocean ridges and large igneous provinces, yielding considerable variability in olivine crystallization temperatures. We supplement the existing data [...]
Projections of global delta land loss from sea-level rise in the 21st century
Published: 2020-05-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from [...]