Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Subsurface fracturing of sedimentary stones caused by bullet impacts
Published: 2022-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The immovable nature of built heritage means that it is particularly vulnerable during times of armed conflict. Although impacts from small arms and shrapnel leave relatively inconspicuous impact scars, they may elevate the risk of future stone deterioration. This study investigates the subsurface damage caused by bullet impacts, which is not apparent from surface inspection, in order to better [...]
An interconnected palaeo-subglacial lake system in the central Barents Sea
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Sedimentology
Drainage of meltwater beneath an ice sheet influences ice-flow dynamics. To better predict ice sheet behaviour, it is crucial to understand subglacial hydrological processes. Subglacial lakes are important components of the subglacial hydrological system, with many observed and predicted at the beds of contemporary and palaeo-ice sheets. The technical and logistical challenges of studying [...]
Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]
Laboratory validation of a new hydro-mechanical energy-based brittleness index model for hydraulic fracturing
Published: 2022-11-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Mining Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering
Brittleness Index (BI) is a critical parameter characterising the deformation regime of geo-materials, covering the range from purely brittle (fractures) to ductile (plastic flow). A variety of BI models have been developed based on rock properties such as mineralogy, elastic parameters, or stress-strain data. However, very few of them are based on the deformation induced by hydro-mechanical [...]
Barometers behaving badly: Assessing the influence of analytical and experimental uncertainty on clinopyroxene thermobarometry calculations at crustal conditions
Published: 2022-11-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Mineral Physics, Volcanology
The composition of clinopyroxene and Clinopyroxene-Liquid (Cpx-Liq) pairs are frequently used to calculate crystallization/equilibration pressures in igneous systems. While canonical uncertainties are often assigned to calculated pressures based on fits to calibration or test datasets, the sources of these uncertainties (and thus ways to reduce them) have not been rigorously assessed. We show [...]
Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]
Geosphere and Biosphere coevolution: the role of trace metals availability in the evolution of biogeochemistry
Published: 2022-11-20
Subjects: Biochemistry, Biophysics, and Structural Biology, Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Microbiology, Planetary Sciences
Earth’s geosphere and biosphere have coevolved over time, influencing each other’s stability and keeping our planet habitable for most of its 4.543 billion years of history. Biogeochemical cycles play a key role in controlling this interaction, connecting long-term geological cycles and the much faster evolution of the Earth’s outer biologically dominated envelopes. A small set of [...]
The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation
Published: 2022-11-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]
A Systematic Review of Deep Learning Applications in Interpolation and Extrapolation of Precipitation Data
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
With technological enhancements, the volume, velocity, and variety (3Vs) of the raw digital Earth data have increased in recent years. Due to the increased availability of computer resources and the growing popularity of deep learning applications, this data has been a crucial source for data-driven studies that have transformed the fields of climate and earth science. One of the critical data [...]
Community recommendations for geochemical data, services and analytical capabilities in the 21st century
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry
The majority of geochemical and cosmochemical research is based upon observations and, in particular, upon the acquisition, processing and interpretation of analytical data from physical samples. The exponential increase in volumes and rates of data acquisition over the last century, combined with advances in instruments, analytical methods and an increasing variety of data types analysed, has [...]
How reproducible and reliable is geophysical research? A review of the availability and accessibility of data and software for research published in journals
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Geophysical research frequently makes use of agreed methodologies, formally published software, and bespoke code to process and analyse data. The reliability and repeatability of these methods is vital in maintaining the integrity of research findings and thereby avoiding the dissemination of unreliable results. In recent years there has been increased attention on aspects of reproducibility, [...]
Disentangling the effects of climate change and reoligotrophication on primary production in a large lake
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences
Climate change and reduction in nutrient loads have significant effects on primary production and phytoplankton growth dynamics. Since in the last few decades in many regions, nutrients in lakes were reduced simultaneously as the climate changed. Yet, it remains unclear which of the two has impacted primary production the most. In this study, we couple the General Ocean Turbulence Model with the [...]
Technical note: A procedure to clean, decompose and aggregate time series
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Errors, gaps and outliers complicate and sometimes invalidate the analysis of time series. While most fields have developed their own strategy to clean the raw data, no generic procedure has been promoted to standardize the pre-processing. This lack of harmonization makes the inter-comparison of studies difficult, and leads to screening methods that can be arbitrary or case-specific. This study [...]
Evolution of intraplate magmatism atop a mantle plume: geochemical and chronological analysis of Shawahit Basalt, Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia
Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Harrat Rahat is the largest volcanic eld in Saudi Arabia and has been active from ~10 Ma to the present day. Due to its close proximity to important population centres, Harrat Rahat's recent eruptions, the Medinah lava flows (< 1.7 Ma), have been extensively studied to identify volcanic risk. However, the evolution of Harrat Rahat's most extensive and oldest lava flows, known collectively as the [...]
Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia
Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability
The 22 September 2021 (AEST) Mw 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting [...]