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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences

Shortening ice seasons and changing phenology affect under-ice lake temperature dynamics

Isabella Anna Oleksy, David C. Richardson

Published: 2022-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences

Temperate lakes worldwide are losing ice cover but the implications for under-ice thermal dynamics are poorly constrained. Using a 92-year record of ice phenology from a temperate and historically dimictic lake, we examined trends, variability, and drivers of ice phenology and under-ice temperatures. The onset of ice formation decreased by 23 days century-1 which can be largely attributed to [...]

Citizen and Machine Learning-aided High-resolution mapping of urban heat exposure and stress

Xuewei Wang, Angel Hsu, TC Chakraborty

Published: 2022-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Through conversion of land cover to more built-up, impervious surfaces, cities are creating hotter environments for urban residents. Existing measurements of heat and heat stress, however, are often insufficient to capture intra-urban variability of exposure. This study provides a replicable method for modeling air temperature, humidity, and heat stress over an urban area, engaging citizens in [...]

Correlation of geological complexes of the Khan-Tengri Mountain massif

Alexander Mikolaichuk, Farid Apayarov, Dmitry Gordeev

Published: 2022-12-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure

Researchers of the border regions of Xinjiang and the Central Asian countries are actively discussing two alternative models for the relationships between the main structural units of the Tianshan mountains. Most researchers believe that the Kyrgyz Middle Tianshan wedges out to the east along the Atbashi-Inylchek-Nalati marginal fault. According to the second hypothesis, the structures of the [...]

Basin-scale hydrodynamics and physical connectivity in a Great Patagonian Lake

Javiera Abarca, Hugo Nicolás Ulloa, Yarko Niño

Published: 2022-12-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Patagonian lakes are one of the most unexplored aquatic environments on Earth, and little is known about their thermo-hydrodynamics and current trophic state. Meanwhile, increasing urbanization and industrialization in their catchments compromise their health. Here, we investigate Lake Llanquihue, one of the Earth's great freshwater bodies in Northern Patagonia, Chile. Still considered a pristine [...]

Subsurface fracturing of sedimentary stones caused by bullet impacts

Oliver Campbell, Tom Blenkinsop, Lisa Mol, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences

The immovable nature of built heritage means that it is particularly vulnerable during times of armed conflict. Although impacts from small arms and shrapnel leave relatively inconspicuous impact scars, they may elevate the risk of future stone deterioration. This study investigates the subsurface damage caused by bullet impacts, which is not apparent from surface inspection, in order to better [...]

An interconnected palaeo-subglacial lake system in the central Barents Sea

Mariana Esteves, Denise Christina Rüther, Monica C.W. Winsborrow, et al.

Published: 2022-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Sedimentology

Drainage of meltwater beneath an ice sheet influences ice-flow dynamics. To better predict ice sheet behaviour, it is crucial to understand subglacial hydrological processes. Subglacial lakes are important components of the subglacial hydrological system, with many observed and predicted at the beds of contemporary and palaeo-ice sheets. The technical and logistical challenges of studying [...]

Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation

Luca Insolia, Stéphane Guerrier, Chiara Paola Montagna, et al.

Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]

Laboratory validation of a new hydro-mechanical energy-based brittleness index model for hydraulic fracturing

Runhua Feng, Joel Sarout, Jeremie Dautriat, et al.

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Mining Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering

Brittleness Index (BI) is a critical parameter characterising the deformation regime of geo-materials, covering the range from purely brittle (fractures) to ductile (plastic flow). A variety of BI models have been developed based on rock properties such as mineralogy, elastic parameters, or stress-strain data. However, very few of them are based on the deformation induced by hydro-mechanical [...]

Barometers behaving badly: Assessing the influence of analytical and experimental uncertainty on clinopyroxene thermobarometry calculations at crustal conditions

Penny E Wieser, Adam J Kent, Christy Till, et al.

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Mineral Physics, Volcanology

The composition of clinopyroxene and Clinopyroxene-Liquid (Cpx-Liq) pairs are frequently used to calculate crystallization/equilibration pressures in igneous systems. While canonical uncertainties are often assigned to calculated pressures based on fits to calibration or test datasets, the sources of these uncertainties (and thus ways to reduce them) have not been rigorously assessed. We show [...]

Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction

Michael Tsyrulnikov, Elena Astakhova, Dmitry Gayfulin

Published: 2022-11-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]

Geosphere and Biosphere coevolution: the role of trace metals availability in the evolution of biogeochemistry

Donato Giovannelli

Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Biochemistry, Biophysics, and Structural Biology, Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Microbiology, Planetary Sciences

Earth’s geosphere and biosphere have coevolved over time, influencing each other’s stability and keeping our planet habitable for most of its 4.543 billion years of history. Biogeochemical cycles play a key role in controlling this interaction, connecting long-term geological cycles and the much faster evolution of the Earth’s outer biologically dominated envelopes. A small set of [...]

The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation

Meghana Ranganathan, Brent Minchew

Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]

A Systematic Review of Deep Learning Applications in Interpolation and Extrapolation of Precipitation Data

Muhammed Sit, Bekir Zahit Demiray, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology

With technological enhancements, the volume, velocity, and variety (3Vs) of the raw digital Earth data have increased in recent years. Due to the increased availability of computer resources and the growing popularity of deep learning applications, this data has been a crucial source for data-driven studies that have transformed the fields of climate and earth science. One of the critical data [...]

Community recommendations for geochemical data, services and analytical capabilities in the 21st century

Marthe Klöcking, Lesley Wyborn, Kerstin Lehnert, et al.

Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry

The majority of geochemical and cosmochemical research is based upon observations and, in particular, upon the acquisition, processing and interpretation of analytical data from physical samples. The exponential increase in volumes and rates of data acquisition over the last century, combined with advances in instruments, analytical methods and an increasing variety of data types analysed, has [...]

How reproducible and reliable is geophysical research? A review of the availability and accessibility of data and software for research published in journals

Mark Ireland, Guillermo Algarabel, Michael Steventon, et al.

Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

Geophysical research frequently makes use of agreed methodologies, formally published software, and bespoke code to process and analyse data. The reliability and repeatability of these methods is vital in maintaining the integrity of research findings and thereby avoiding the dissemination of unreliable results. In recent years there has been increased attention on aspects of reproducibility, [...]

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