Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
A source model for earthquakes near the nucleation dimension
Published: 2022-03-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earthquake self-similarity is a controversial topic, both observationally and theoretically. Theory predicts a finite nucleation dimension, implying a break of self-similarity below a certain magnitude. While observations of non self-similar earthquake behavior have been reported, their interpretation is challenging due to trade-offs between source and path effects and assumptions on the [...]
Late Tonian development and provenance of the Adelaide Superbasin
Published: 2022-03-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
The late Tonian sequences of the Adelaide Superbasin were witness to the birth of the proto-Pacific Ocean during the breakup of Rodinia. Understanding the sedimentology and provenance of these rocks from across the basin is key to understanding both their deposition over ~70 million years, the local palaeogeography, and leads to a better understanding of the early development of the proto-Pacific [...]
Reducing the Uncertainty of Multi-Well Petrophysical Interpretation from Well Logs via Machine-Learning and Statistical Models
Published: 2022-03-22
Subjects: Analysis, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Mining Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Well-log interpretation provides in situ estimates of formation properties such as porosity, hydrocarbon pore volume, and permeability. Reservoir models based on well-log-derived formation properties deliver reserve-volume estimates, production forecasts, and help with decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs due to multiple [...]
Automated machine learning to evaluate the information content of tropospheric trace gas columns for fine particle estimates over India: a modeling testbed
Published: 2022-03-20
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
India is largely devoid of high-quality and reliable on-the-ground measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Ground-level PM2.5 concentrations are estimated from publicly available satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products combined with other information. Prior research has largely overlooked the possibility of gaining additional accuracy and insights into the sources of PM using [...]
Internal Planetary Feedbacks, Mantle Dynamics, and Plate Tectonics
Published: 2022-03-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Tectonics and Structure
Isolating planetary feedbacks, and feedback analysis, are prevalent aspects of climate and Earth surface process science. An under appreciation of internal planet feedbacks, and feedback analysis for plate tectonics research, motivate this chapter. We review feedbacks that influence the Earth's thermal evolution and expand them to include magmatic history and planetary water budgets. The [...]
On the estimation of landslide intensity, hazard and density via data-driven models
Published: 2022-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Maps that attempt to predict landslide occurrences have essentially stayed the same since Brabb, E.E., Pampeyan, E.H. and Bonilla, M.G. (1972) Landslide susceptibility in San Mateo County, California (No. 360), US Geological Survey. The tools have certainly changed in fifty years. But, the geomorphological community addressed and still addresses this issue by estimating whether a given slope is [...]
Rapid tremor migration during few minute-long slow earthquakes in Cascadia
Published: 2022-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Slow earthquakes are now commonly found to display a wide range of durations, moments, and slip and propagation speeds. But not all types of slow earthquakes have been examined in detail. Here we probe tremor bursts with durations between 1 and 30 minutes, which are likely driven by few minute-long bursts of aseismic slip. We use a coherence based technique to detect thousands of tremor bursts [...]
Self-replicating subduction zone initiation by polarity reversal
Published: 2022-03-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Tectonics and Structure
Subduction zones have recurrently formed on Earth. Previous studies have, however, suggested that they are unlikely to start in the interior of a pristine ocean. Instead, they seem to be more likely to form from another pre-existing subduction zone. One widely cited conceptual model to start new subduction zones is polarity reversal, resulting from the shutdown of a pre-existent subduction zone [...]
Fire-vegetation interactions in Arctic tundra and their spatial variability
Published: 2022-03-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Plant Sciences, Remote Sensing, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Circumpolar tundra has experienced a greater increase in temperatures compared to any other biome, with a magnitude of the increase nearly three times the global average. Widespread shrubification associated with pronounced observed warming is gradually transforming the tundra ecosystem structure and function. This study confirms that a shrub-dominated fire-biomass positive feedback loop is [...]
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing coastal flood risk
Published: 2022-03-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability
When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high fidelity models being more expensive than low fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low fidelity models. Here, we apply the [...]
Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting Framework, Implementation and Post-Analysis Using Deep Learning
Published: 2022-03-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences
Rainfall-runoff modeling and streamflow prediction using deep learning algorithms have been studied significantly in the last few years. The majority of these studies focus on the simulation and testing of historical datasets. Deployment and operation of a real-time streamflow forecast model using deep learning will face additional data and computational challenges such as inaccurate rainfall [...]
The development of the eastern Orpheus rift basin, offshore eastern Canada: A case study of the interplay between rift-related faulting and salt deposition and flow
Published: 2022-03-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The salt-rich Orpheus rift basin, part of the eastern North American (ENAM) rift system, formed during the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic prior to opening of the Atlantic Ocean. Using a dense grid of 2D seismic-reflection lines, data from nearby wells, and information from adjacent ENAM rift basins, we have established a tectonostratigraphic framework, identified key structural elements, and [...]
Abrupt shift to El Niño-like mean state conditions in the tropical Pacific during the Little Ice Age
Published: 2022-03-11
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology
The mean state of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate, in particular its east-west asymmetry, has profound consequences for regional climates and for the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation variability. Here we present a new high-resolution paleohydrological record using the stable-hydrogen-isotopic composition of terrestrial-lipid biomarkers (δDwax) from a 1,400-year-old lake sedimentary [...]
Multi-faceted analyses of seasonal trends and drivers of land surface variables in Indo-Gangetic river basins
Published: 2022-03-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability
The Indo-Gangetic river basins feature a wide range of climatic, topographic, and land cover characteristics providing a suitable setting for the exploration of multivariate time series. Here, we collocated a comprehensive feature space for these river basins including Earth observation time series on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface water area (SWA), and snow cover area [...]
Marine ecosystem changepoints spread under ocean warming in an Earth System Model
Published: 2022-03-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Sudden shifts in marine plankton communities in response to environmental changes are of special concern because of their low predictability and high potential impacts on ocean ecosystems. We explored how anthropogenic climate change influences the spatial extent and frequency of changepoints in plankton populations by comparing the behavior of a plankton community in a coupled Earth System Model [...]