Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Revisiting Pyroclimographs
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Education, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
Wildland fire activity often demonstrates distinct seasonality. Multiple peaks of activity may occur throughout the year with varying magnitudes and durations due to climatologically conducive conditions for wildfire activity or intentional burning. However, anomalous fire environment conditions may favor out-of-season wildfires. Characterization of conditions that increase fire ignition [...]
A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Projections of climate change and climate impacts requires bias-corrected, downscaled output from ensembles of earth system models (ESMs). Potential impacts are uncertain due to modeling differences between ESMs, internal variability stemming from the chaos of the earth system, and differences in the historical reference datasets used to bias-corrected and downscale ESM output. Here, we introduce [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Assessing and Correcting Bias in Gridded Reference Evapotranspiration over Agricultural Lands Across the Contiguous United States
Published: 2026-02-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Water Resource Management
Gridded reference evapotranspiration (ETo) data are widely used for agricultural water management and remote sensing ET (RSET) models, but biases can arise in agricultural regions where coarse-resolution meteorological inputs fail to capture local microclimates. We investigated biases in the gridMET ETo product across irrigated agricultural areas of the contiguous United States (CONUS) by [...]
MACROM: An Optimal Control Model for Balancing Climate Change Abatement and Damage Trade-offs
Published: 2026-02-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment
The current pace of global emissions reduction is inadequate to meet the Paris Agreement temperature target of 1.5°C. While carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly viewed as necessary to meet these targets, questions remain about the optimal scale and timing of deployment when both costs and climate damages are considered. Here we present MACROM, an optimal control climate-economic model [...]
Widespread reliance of rainfed crops on upwind irrigated agriculture in India
Published: 2026-02-03
Subjects: Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Rainfed crops account for approximately 40% of India’s food production and support 60% of its livestock. Although linked to oceanic monsoon rainfall, their productivity also depends on terrestrial evaporation, particularly in the non-monsoon season. However, the degree to which rainfed crops also rely on moisture sourced from upwind irrigated areas, remains largely unknown. Using a combination of [...]
A Quality-Control Procedure for Bio-Optical Applications of Hyperspectral Radiometric Upwelling Radiance and Downwelling Irradiance Profiles Measured by BioGeoChemical-Argo Floats.
Published: 2026-01-27
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Autonomous in-situ radiometric observations are increasingly used to constrain bio-optical processes and validate satellite ocean-color products, such as remote sensing reflectance and diffuse attenuation coefficients. Because these observations are collected independently of weather and sea-state conditions, their application critically depends on robust quality control. Starting in 2012, the [...]
Study on Land-use Change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions
Published: 2026-01-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Studies
Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions (ELUC, defined as net carbon emissions and removals) have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. While its contribution has declined in recent decades, ELUC still represents a significant component of the global carbon budget, comprising 11% of anthropogenic emissions during 2012–2022. [...]
Two Wind Farms, Two Islands: Physics Informed Causal Wind Analysis in New Zealand
Published: 2026-01-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Power and Energy
Wind power forecasting models often rely on correlation-based methods, which can misinterpret the relationship between meteorological variables and power generation. A key example is air density: while physics suggests denser air should increase available wind power, observational data can show a negative correlation because high-pressure regimes (high density) often coincide with lower wind [...]
More Frequent Extreme Precipitation on the Asian Monsoon Fringes Driven by Evolving Extratropical Planetary-Scale Circulations
Published: 2026-01-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
In recent decades, the fringes of the Asian summer monsoon, such as Pakistan and Northeast China, have become hotspots of extreme precipitation. Although such increases are often linked to thermodynamic changes in a warming climate, the dynamical drivers behind these trends, particularly the systematic role of extratropical circulations, remain poorly understood. This study identifies the [...]
Hydrological and landscape controls on dissolved organic matter dynamics in European wetlands
Published: 2025-12-28
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a key component in aquatic ecosystems, representing the main source of energy for microbial metabolism and playing a crucial role in C sequestration and export. Its optical properties (absorption and fluorescence) provide integrated information on its quality (average molecular weight and aromaticity degree, main sources, presence of protein like and humic-like [...]
Assessing the effects of restoration and conservation on gaseous carbon fluxes and climate mitigation capacity across six European coastal wetlands
Published: 2025-12-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies
Coastal wetlands play a substantial role in regulating Earth’s climate through exchanges of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current European policies promote widespread coastal wetland restoration to reverse historical losses and ongoing pressures. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes respond to restoration across different coastal wetland types and whether these [...]
Governing the cryosphere beyond political timeframes
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Glaciology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Cryospheric systems are nearing irreversible thresholds, yet political processes remain misaligned with the long timescales of ice loss. Using COP30 as context, we argue that cryosphere science must inform governance capable of linking near-term decisions with long-term stability in a rapidly changing world.
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
The Impact of GIA Corrections on Gravimetric Basin-Scale Ocean Mass Budgets
Published: 2025-11-22
Subjects: Climate, Geophysics and Seismology
Closing the sea-level budget is crucial for validating our understanding of climate change and sea-level rise. Satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) and altimetry are primary tools for measuring the ocean mass. Still, both datasets must be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the ongoing viscoelastic response of the Earth to past deglaciation. [...]