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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Heatwave Characteristics in Different Ecosystems across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations

Serhan Yeşilköy

Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology

Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. This extreme weather event is characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures and has caused substantial economic damage and affecting millions. During heatwave events, agricultural and forest lands are affected by intensified thermal stress and water scarcity, impacting plant [...]

A realistic climate strategy

Graeme MacDonald Taylor, Peter Wadhams, Tom Goreau, et al.

Published: 2025-04-12
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability

The international climate strategy is failing. Current policies will act too slowly to prevent rising temperatures from crossing critical climate tipping points. IPCC assessments underestimate the non-linear risks and catastrophic costs of overshooting Paris Agreement targets. Opponents of solar geoengineering cite concerns about moral hazard and other potential risks; however, at this juncture [...]

Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)

Edward Byers, Michaela Werning, Mahe Perette, et al.

Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based on inputs of global mean air temperature [...]

Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat

Daniel Parkes, David J. Thornalley, Erin McClymont, et al.

Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]

Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change

Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Guy Munhoven, et al.

Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences

Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. We present the first Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, [...]

Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR

Zachary Michael Labe, Thomas L. Delworth, Nathaniel C. Johnson, et al.

Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]

Ediacaran coupling of climate and biosphere dynamics

Thomas William Wong Hearing, Benjamin Tindal, Thomas M. Vandyk, et al.

Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology, Paleontology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy

Throughout the Phanerozoic (538.8 Ma to present), climate change is demonstrably linked to radiations, extinctions, and turnovers in the biosphere. Here, we show that this connection existed in the late Ediacaran (~579 to 538.8 Ma), the first interval in Earth’s history to host complex macro-organisms, including early metazoans. Current correlations of glacial sedimentary deposits have been used [...]

Reduced Precipitation on Rapa Nui During the Decline of the Moai Culture

Redmond Stein, Lorelei Curtin, Nicholas Balascio, et al.

Published: 2025-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

From approximately 1200-1600 CE, Polynesian settlers on the island of Rapa Nui engaged in megalithic monument construction, crafting hundreds of Ahu platforms and Moai statues from volcanic bedrock. The decline of this tradition has intrigued archaeologists for decades. The most widely disseminated hypothesis surrounding the demise of the Ahu Moai culture suggests that the Rapanui overexploited [...]

Philadelphia and the Schuylkill under extreme hydrometeorological events

Dingyu Xuan, M. Ani Hsieh, Douglas J Jerolmack, et al.

Published: 2025-02-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology

The Schuylkill River, a lifeline for Philadelphia, faces intensifying stress from urbanization and increasingly severe extreme hydrometeorological events (EHMEs) driven by climate change. Understanding how urban estuarine rivers respond to EHMEs remains challenging due to limited high-resolution data and the complexness of human-modified landscapes. Here, we combine long-term hydrological [...]

A bipolar convection seesaw explains Earth system response to Heinrich events

Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Christine Kaufhold, et al.

Published: 2025-01-25
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Oceanography

Extra-polar cloud feedbacks as a driver of Arctic amplification

Qiuxian Li, Kyle C. Armour, Wei Cheng, et al.

Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing

Senne Van Loon, Maria Rugenstein, Elizabeth A Barnes

Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance (Soden et al. 2018; Gregory et al. 2020; Forster et al. 2021, 2024). Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating [...]

Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation

Vincent T. Cooper, Greg Hakim, Kyle C. Armour

Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing datasets based on these observations typically do not assimilate observations simultaneously across different components of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate [...]

Sea level rise submergence simulations suggest substantial deterioration of Indian River Lagoon ecosystem services by 2050, Florida, U.S.A.

Randall W. Parkinson, Levente Juhász, Shimon Wdowinski, et al.

Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability, Water Resource Management

The Indian River Lagoon is a 250-km-long Estuary of National Significance located along the east-central Florida coast of the USA. NOAA tidal data generated at a station located in the central reaches of the estuary indicate sea level rise has accelerated over the duration of record to an average of 9.6 ± 1.6 mm year−1 (2003–2022). It is expected to continue accelerating over the duration of this [...]

Site Planning for a Network of Government-operated Weather Stations in the Dominican Republic Using Zonal Statistics from Geospatial Sources, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, and Neighborhood Analysis

Jose Ramon Martinez Batlle, Michela Izzo Gioiosa

Published: 2024-12-30
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science

Many weather station networks lack sufficient representativeness, and their station density is often inadequate to capture spatial and climatic variability effectively. Optimal site selection is therefore essential to enhance spatial coverage and improve data quality. This study proposes a methodology for identifying optimal sites for a meteorological station network in the Dominican Republic, [...]

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