Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
State-dependency of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to effective precipitation changes
Published: 2024-06-26
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Reliable projections of the future hydrological cycle are needed for designing adaptation and mitigation measures under global warming. However, uncertainties in the projected sign and magnitude of effective precipitation changes (precipitation minus evaporation, P-E) remain high. Here, we examine the state-dependency of circulation, temperature, and relative humidity contributions to P-E changes [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]
Detecting methane emissions from palm oil mills with airborne and spaceborne imaging spectrometers
Published: 2024-06-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Water Resource Management
Methane (CH4) emissions from human activities are a major cause of global warming, necessitating effective mitigation strategies. In particular, the palm oil industry generates palm oil mill effluent (POME), which continuously emits methane into the atmosphere. Satellites are becoming a powerful tool to detect and quantify methane emissions, but there is no evidence of their ability to monitor [...]
Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique
Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management
Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]
Spatial Patterns of Urban Heat Islands and Green Space Cooling Effects in the Urban Microclimate of Karachi
Published: 2024-05-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
With rapid urbanization and the increasing threats of climate change, metropolitan cities like Karachi, Pakistan, are encountering greater challenges due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. Understanding the cooling potential of urban green spaces (UGS) is crucial for mitigating heat stress and enhancing urban resilience. This study aims to analyze the thermal dynamics and cooling efficacy [...]
The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models
Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography
Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]
Global Warming is Industrially Suppressed Middle-School Science
Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 15\% of the American public that denies global warming probably used middle-school science texts in which the topic was omitted at the behest of Big Oil. We attempt to remedy this with a simple explanation of the process, in which the 33°C difference between the Stefan-Bolzmann astrophysical -18°C temperature of the solar-heated planet and the Weather Bureau's comfortable 15°C sea-level [...]
Carcass locations implicate cyanobacterial toxicity in a mass elephant mortality event in Botswana
Published: 2024-05-07
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
The 2020 mass mortality of 350 African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Botswana sparked global concern. These deaths have been linked to cyanobacterial toxins (cyanotoxins) in local watering holes (pans), but evidence remains inconclusive. Our study presents the first detailed spatial analysis that explores the relationship between the ecohydrology of 3,389 regional pans with the locations of [...]
Advancing forest aboveground biomass mapping by integrating GEDI with other Earth Observation data using a cloud computing platform: A case study of Alabama, United States
Published: 2024-04-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences
Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a crucial indicator for monitoring carbon and requires accurate quantification. This study aimed to advance AGB estimation using open access Earth observation (EO) data and cloud computing, focusing on Alabama, USA. The specific objectives were to: (1) develop a workflow for creating a 30 m forest AGBD map with GEDI, using GEE, (2) evaluate and compare [...]
Improving Urban Climate Adaptation Modelling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Through Transient Urban Surface Albedo Representation
Published: 2024-04-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil Engineering, Climate, Computational Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces, through strategies like white roof installations, has emerged as a promising approach for urban climate adaptation. Yet, modelling these strategies on a large scale is limited by the use of static urban surface albedo representations in the Earth system models. In this study, we developed a new transient urban surface albedo scheme in the Community Earth [...]
Problems with Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analyses of U.S. LNG Exports and Locally Produced Coal
Published: 2024-04-01
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States are growing rapidly, and the United States government must balance a multiplicity of interests in deciding to what extent the growth of LNG exports should be further encouraged. Its decisions must be consistent with the Natural Gas Act, which mandates that exports of natural gas be in the public interest. In the current administration, [...]
Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates
Published: 2024-03-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment
Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risks is thus vital for robust decision-making and model improvement. However, the outcomes of such uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are tied to the chosen model setup, warranting caution [...]
Linking local climate scenarios to global warming levels: Applicability, prospects and uncertainties
Published: 2024-03-08
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global warming levels (GWLs) are increasingly becoming a central concept in climate change studies. In recent years, their integrative quality for climate change impact analysis has been demonstrated, and methodological advancements have helped to compensate for some inherent shortfalls of the concept. However, their applicability at the regional level is debatable, and no study to date has [...]
The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California
Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]
Bad science and good intentions prevent effective climate action
Published: 2024-02-17
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Although the 2015 Paris Agreement climate targets seem certain to be missed, only a few experts are questioning the adequacy of the current approach to limiting climate change and suggesting that additional approaches are needed to avoid unacceptable catastrophes. This article posits that selective science communication and unrealistically optimistic assumptions are obscuring the reality that [...]