Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Philadelphia and the Schuylkill under extreme hydrometeorological events
Published: 2025-02-06
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
The Schuylkill River, a lifeline for Philadelphia, faces intensifying stress from urbanization and increasingly severe extreme hydrometeorological events (EHMEs) driven by climate change. Understanding how urban estuarine rivers respond to EHMEs remains challenging due to limited high-resolution data and the complexness of human-modified landscapes. Here, we combine long-term hydrological [...]
A bipolar convection seesaw explains Earth system response to Heinrich events
Published: 2025-01-24
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Oceanography
Extra-polar cloud feedbacks as a driver of Arctic amplification
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance (Soden et al. 2018; Gregory et al. 2020; Forster et al. 2021, 2024). Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating [...]
Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation
Published: 2025-01-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing reanalysis datasets based on these observations are derived separately for each component of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate dynamics. Here we use coupled [...]
Sea level rise submergence simulations suggest substantial deterioration of Indian River Lagoon ecosystem services by 2050, Florida, U.S.A.
Published: 2025-01-02
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
The Indian River Lagoon is a 250-km long Estuary of National Significance located along the east central Florida coast of the USA. NOAA tidal records generated at a station located in the central reaches of the estuary indicate sea level rise has accelerated over the past 20 years to an average of 9.6 ± 1.6 mm yr−1 (2003–2022) and it is expected to continue accelerating over the duration of this [...]
Site Planning for a Network of Government-operated Weather Stations in the Dominican Republic Using Zonal Statistics from Geospatial Sources, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, and Neighborhood Analysis
Published: 2024-12-30
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Many weather station networks lack sufficient representativeness, and their station density is often inadequate to capture spatial and climatic variability effectively. Optimal site selection is therefore essential to enhance spatial coverage and improve data quality. This study proposes a methodology for identifying optimal sites for a meteorological station network in the Dominican Republic, [...]
Preliminary Development of Machine Learning Emulators for Long-Term Atmospheric CO2 Evolution
Published: 2024-12-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Environmental Chemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study evaluates machine learning emulators for modeling long-term atmospheric CO2 evolution by comparing Random Forests (RF) and Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) in replicating cGENIE Earth System Model outputs over a one-million-year timescale. Using one-year pulse emission experiments spanning 1,000-20,000 PgC with outputs tracked for 106 years, we assessed emulator performance across multiple [...]
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature [...]
Disappearance of Homo floresiensis from Liang Bua alongside seasonal aridification of Flores 61,000-47,000 years ago
Published: 2024-12-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Paleobiology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The cause of the disappearance of the primitive hominin, Homo floresiensis, from the Indonesian island of Flores ~50,000 years ago is a key question in palaeoanthropology. The potential roles of human agency and climate change continue to be debated, but the history of freshwater availability critical to survival at the type locality, Liang Bua, remains unknown. Although speleothem 18O is used [...]
Smoke in your eyes: Investigating the effects of wind power on weather trends and climate using time series analysis
Published: 2024-12-04
Subjects: Climate
Time series analysis developed in the previous report [1] for UK mean summer temperature has been applied to further examples of weather trends, including temperature, rainfall and Sahara dust, and so at global, regional, national and local levels, in an attempt to assess whether wind power is having a deleterious effect on weather patterns. The analysis involves detrending weather data by [...]
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Published: 2024-11-15
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Risk Analysis
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to [...]
How unusual was Australia's 2017-2019 Tinderbox Drought?
Published: 2024-09-19
Subjects: Climate
Designing a scenario of unilateral climate intervention
Published: 2024-09-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, International and Area Studies, Other Environmental Sciences
Climate change is causing increasingly alarming global impacts, such as rising temperatures and more severe storms. Despite this, current multilateral initiatives and agreements to systematically reduce greenhouse gas emissions are completely incommensurate with the scale of the problem. Thus, we explore the potential that some unilateral actor, finding present and near-future climate changes [...]
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]