Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Ratcheting up ambition in climate policy
Published: 2017-11-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The historic Paris Agreement aims to constrain the peak increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, or at least well below 2 °C. Every country has committed to device their own “nationally determined contributions” towards this target. These contributions are only proscribed for the coming 10-15 years with a regular reassessment of them against the global target. Here we use a global [...]
Extreme UK Rainfall and Natural Climate Variability: Combining models and data
Published: 2017-11-11
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide [...]
Weakening of nonlinear ENSO under global warming
Published: 2017-11-08
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Kohyama, T., D. L. Hartmann, and D. S. Battisti (2018), Weakening of nonlinear ENSO under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press., which has been published in final form at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079085 Abstract: The ENSO amplitude response to global warming is examined in two global [...]