Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Environmental Sciences
Emergence of anthropogenic fire regimes in the southern boreal of Canada
Published: 2021-10-29
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Life Sciences, Plant Sciences
While radiative forcing and thus land surface temperatures have been shown to positively correlate with fire severity, precipitation, and lightning strike frequency, the effects of human activity on fire regimes remain difficult to disentangle from geophysical drivers given co-variation between these factors. Here, I analyze fire regimes in the 1919-2012 period across Canada and compare national [...]
Reproducibility in subsurface geoscience
Published: 2021-10-26
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Sedimentology, Soil Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management
Reproducibility, the extent to which consistent results are obtained when an experiment or study is repeated, sits at the foundation of science. The aim of this process is to produce robust findings and knowledge, with reproducibility being the screening tool to benchmark how well we are implementing the scientific method. However, the re-examination of results from many disciplines has caused [...]
Linking technical geothermal potential from borehole heat exchangers and heating demand scenarios on a regional scale
Published: 2021-10-20
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Extracting shallow geothermal energy using borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) can help decarbonising the residential heating sector. To assist urban planers and policy makers in developing carbon-neutral heating plans the regional technical shallow geothermal potential must be analysed. Here, we propose a methodology to estimate the technical geothermal potential of BHE fields on a regional scale [...]
Multi-temporal relative landslide risk analysis for sustainable development of rapidly growing cities
Published: 2021-10-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the last decades, developing countries have experienced an increase in impact of natural disasters due to both the ongoing climate change and the sustained expansion of urban areas. Intrinsic vulnerability of settlements due to poverty and poor governance, as well as the lack of tools for urban occupation planning and mitigation protocols, have made such impact particularly severe. Cuenca [...]
Deadly Heat Exposure in an Urbanized World
Published: 2021-10-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Climate-change exposes an increasing share of the world population to potentially lethal heat, a threat accentuated by rapid urbanization. Here, we project occurrence of future deadly heat for urban agglomerations around the world until 2080 by using CMIP6 climate model projections of temperature and relative humidity, urbanization prospects and GDP projections from the SSP scenarios. We show [...]
The 2021 SSP scenarios of the IMAGE 3.2 model
Published: 2021-10-10
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
The SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenarios are intensively used in climate and environmental research to explore uncertain future developments and possible response strategies. This paper briefly describes an update of the SSP scenarios generated by the IMAGE 3.2 model. The paper presents the changes in method and key scenario updates. As such, it serves as a key reference for the updated [...]
Fire-weather interaction fed the 2020 western USA gigafire
Published: 2021-10-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Wildfires threaten human lives, destroy infrastructure, disrupt economic activity, and damage ecosystem services. A record-breaking gigafire event ravaged the western United States (USA) in mid-September 2020, burning 1.2 million acres (4,900 km2) in Oregon and California, and resulting in severe smoke pollution with daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over 300 µg/m3 for multiple [...]
Rapid characterisation of the extremely large landslide threatening the Rules Reservoir (Southern Spain)
Published: 2021-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology
When an active landslide is first identified in an artificial reservoir, a comprehensive study has to be quickly conducted to analyse the possible hazard that it may represent to such a critical infrastructure. This paper presents the case of the El Arrecife Landslide, located in a slope of the Rules Reservoir (Southern Spain), as an example of geological and motion data integration for [...]
Pangeo Forge: Crowdsourcing Analysis-Ready, Cloud Optimized Data Production
Published: 2021-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Pangeo Forge is a new community-driven platform that accelerates science by providing high-level recipe frameworks alongside cloud compute infrastructure for extracting data from provider archives, transforming it into analysis-ready, cloud-optimized (ARCO) data stores, and providing a human- and machine-readable catalog for browsing and loading. In abstracting the scientific domain logic of data [...]
Missing or Underrated Super-emitters of Nitrogen Oxides in China Exposed from Space
Published: 2021-09-20
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) play a central role in air pollution. Super-emitters present unique opportunities for emission mitigation in China and beyond. They comprise intensive industrial facilities (e.g., power or chemical plants), less than 1 × 1 km2 with high NOx plumes, dominating localized concentrations within a limited geographical scope. However, identification of super-emitters [...]
The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas
Published: 2021-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the electric power across most of Texas. They make short-term assessments of electricity demand based on historical weather over the last decade or two, thereby ignoring the effects of climate change and the possibility of weather variability outside of the recent historical range. In this paper, we develop an empirical methodology to [...]
Acquisition of Data for Building Photogrammetric Virtual Outcrop Models for the Geosciences using Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs)
Published: 2021-09-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Over the past five years the use of 3D models in the Earth Sciences has become ubiquitous. These models, termed Virtual outcrops, are most commonly generated using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, an image-based modelling method that has achieved widespread uptake and utilization. Data for these models is commonly acquired using remotely piloted aerial vehicles (RPVs), commonly called [...]
Three-dimensional fluid-driven stable frictional ruptures
Published: 2021-09-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
We investigate the quasi-static growth of a fluid-driven frictional shear crack that propagates in mixed mode (II+III) on a planar fault interface that separates two identical half-spaces of a three-dimensional solid. The fault interface is characterized by a shear strength equal to the product of a constant friction coefficient and the local effective normal stress. Fluid is injected into the [...]
Higher Long-Term Soil Moisture Increases Organic Carbon Accrual Through Microbial Conversion of Organic Inputs
Published: 2021-09-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High long-term soil moisture may either stimulate or inhibit soil organic carbon (SOC) losses through changes to mineral and chemical composition, and resultant organo-mineral interactions. Yet, the trade-off between mineralization and accrual of SOC under long-term variation in unsaturated soil moisture remains an uncertainty. In this study, we tested the underexplored relationships between [...]
A high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate change impact assessments
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°, comprises 5 climate models and includes two surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Two [...]