Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Environmental Sciences
The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands
Published: 2019-04-24
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over Africa is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate [...]
What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling
Published: 2019-04-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful [...]
Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth System resilience in the Anthropocene
Published: 2019-04-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Fresh water – the bloodstream of the biosphere – is at the centre of the planetary drama of the Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate the Earth’s climate and are essential for thriving aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as water, food and energy security. But the water cycle is also being modified by humans at an unprecedented scale and rate. A holistic understanding of [...]
Matlab/R workflows to assess critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis using the SAFE toolbox
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical techniques to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input factors of a mathematical model on the model’s outputs. The value of GSA for the construction, evaluation, and improvement of earth system models is reviewed in a companion paper by Wagener and Pianosi [n.d.]. The present paper focuses on the implementation of GSA and [...]
Dispersion, accumulation and the ultimate fate of microplastics in deep-marine environments: A review and future directions
Published: 2019-04-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
An estimated 8.3 billion tonnes of non-biodegradable plastic has been produced over the last 65 years. Much of this is not recycled and is disposed into the sedimentary system, has a long environmental residence time and accumulates in sedimentary systems worldwide, posing a threat to important ecosystems and potentially human health. We synthesise existing knowledge of seafloor microplastic [...]
Mapping geospatial processes affecting the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides in Africa
Published: 2019-04-02
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The application of agricultural pesticides in Africa has high negative effects on human health and the environment. To analyse the effect, spatial data characterizing the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides are needed. However, poor availability and quality of data that quantify pesticide application and pesticide fate limit direct analysis of the effect. This study selected key [...]
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]
A macroscale hydrogeological numerical model of the Suio hydrothermal system (central Italy)
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
The complex behaviour of the Suio hydrothermal system (central Italy) and its potential exploitation as a renewable energy source are still unclear. To quantitatively evaluate the geothermal resource, the Suio hydrothermal system has been investigated with a hydrogeological numerical model that couples fluid flow, thermal convection, and transport of diluted species inside a hybrid [...]
Balancing Open Science and Data Privacy in the Water Sciences
Published: 2019-03-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Hydrology, Library and Information Science, Nature and Society Relations, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science, Water Resource Management
Open science practices such as publishing data and code are transforming water science by enabling synthesis and enhancing reproducibility. However, as research increasingly bridges the physical and social science domains (e.g., socio-hydrology), there is the potential for well-meaning researchers to unintentionally violate the privacy and security of individuals or communities by sharing [...]
Agriculture-aquaculture transitions on the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, 1972-2017
Published: 2019-03-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Recent decades have seen a considerable increase in shrimp aquaculture in tropical and subtropical developing countries. This practice is controversial due to its potential for serious economic, food security, and environmental impacts. Of particular concern is the widespread practice of intensive aquaculture in and near mangrove ecosystems where many shrimp species spawn. However, while [...]
Anthropogenic activities alter drought termination
Published: 2019-03-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Despite the increasing influence of human activities on water resources in our current Anthropocene era, the impacts of these activities on the duration, rate and timing of the recovery of drought events, known as the drought termination phase, remain unknown. Here, we present the first assessment of how different human activities (i.e. water abstractions, reservoirs, water transfers) affect [...]
Beneficial land use change: Strategic expansion of new biomass plantations can reduce environmental impacts from EU agriculture
Published: 2019-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Society faces the double challenge of increasing biomass production to meet the future demands for food, materials and bioenergy, while addressing negative impacts of current (and future) land use. In the discourse, land use change (LUC) has often been considered as negative, referring to impacts of deforestation and expansion of biomass plantations. However, strategic establishment of suitable [...]
Average daily flow of microplastics through a tertiary wastewater treatment plant over a ten-month period
Published: 2019-03-12
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Microplastics (MPs, <5 mm in size) are classified as emerging contaminants but treatment processes are not designed to remove these small particles. Wastewater treatment systems have been proposed as pathways for MPs pollution to receiving waters but quantitative and qualitative data on MP occurrence and transport remains limited, hindering risk assessment and regulation. Here, for the first [...]
Wetropolis extreme rainfall and flood demonstrator: from mathematical design to outreach and research
Published: 2019-03-11
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Wetropolis is a transportable "table-top" demonstration model with extreme rainfall and flooding events. It is a conceptual model with random rainfall, river flow, a flood plain, an upland reservoir, a porous moor, representing the upper catchment and visualising groundwater flow, and a city which can flood following extreme rainfall. Its aim is to let the viewer experience extreme rainfall and [...]
From bore-soliton-splash to rogue waves, a new wave-energy device and extreme tsunami run-up
Published: 2019-03-11
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
We explore extreme nonlinear water-wave amplification in a contraction or, analogously, wave amplification in crossing seas. The latter case can lead to extreme or rogue-wave formation at sea. First, amplification of a solitary-water-wave compound running into a contraction is disseminated experimentally, for small-scale and larger wavetanks. Maximum amplification in our bore-soliton-splash [...]