Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Modeling Heterogeneous Subnational Climate Action through a Sectoral Tiering Framework: Implications for U.S. Decarbonization Pathways
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
State governments play a critical role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet the United States’ Paris Agreement targets. However, states vary widely in their capacities and inclinations for enacting climate mitigation policies. Here, we present a sectoral tiering framework to assess state-level mitigation performance across sectors. We implement the tiering system in an integrated [...]
Forty+ Years of Post-Earthquake Reconnaissance: Methodological Evolution Across Three Phases of EEFIT Activity
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Over four decades, the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) has undertaken around 50 missions in around 35 countries, evolving from a structural-engineering field programme into a hybrid platform integrating fieldwork, remote sensing, community-based data collection, and longitudinal return studies. Founded in 1982 as a joint venture between UK academic institutions and the [...]
Assembly areas as urban infrastructure: disaster governance, spatial equity, and the protection of public open space in seismically exposed cities
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Engineering, Physical and Environmental Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Disaster assembly areas - designated open spaces where populations gather following a major earthquake - represent a critical but neglected component of urban resilience infrastructure. Using Istanbul as a primary case study, this Perspective examines how assembly area provision has been systematically eroded through routine planning decisions made outside the disaster management apparatus. Our [...]
Navigating the Complexity of Environmental Migration In the Context of Climate Change: Interdisciplinary Reflections on Concepts and Methods
Published: 2026-05-05
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
This article, from the perspective of a collective of researchers from the French National Research Institute for Development and collaborators, presents and discusses the conceptual and methodological frameworks they have developed to study environmental migration and (im)mobilities. It is based on a workshop organised within the IRD’s CoSav Migrations network, which brought together researchers [...]
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Non-Federal Climate Leadership Can Sustain U.S. Emissions Reductions Under Federal Policy Uncertainty
Published: 2026-04-27
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Recent federal climate policy rollbacks in the United States have slowed progress toward high-ambition climate targets under the Paris Agreement. In the absence of federal climate leadership, there is a growing need to better understand the potential impacts of non-federal climate action. We assess the impacts of recent changes in federal policy, non-federal climate leadership, and potential [...]
Overshoot pathways of 1.5°C: reversible biophysical change, irreversible socioeconomic impacts
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exceedance of 1.5°C in the near term is now unavoidable. Among pathways consistent with the remaining carbon budget, an overshoot pathway, in which exceedance is followed by decline to or below 1.5°C through net-negative emissions, is the best case of what remains achievable. Permanent exceedance produces strictly worse outcomes, yet even an overshoot pathway leaves lasting legacies. We propose a [...]
Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification
Published: 2026-04-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less [...]
Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]
Changing the Chilly Climate: Observations on Gender Diversity and Inclusion at a Geoscience Conference in the Netherlands
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Higher Education, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The aim of this study was to observe audience participation in a conference where the planned structures (presenters, keynotes and chairs) had an equal gender balance. The collected data can give an indication of the effectiveness of diversity and inclusion initiatives beyond the planned structures of the conference itself. We observed behaviours of attendees of the annual Dutch Earth and [...]
The Anthropocene as a Multi-Level Stability Landscape Regimes, Transitions, and Reorganization of the Human–Earth System
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Understanding the evolution of the human–Earth system over decadal-to-centennial timescales remains a central challenge in Earth system science. The Anthropocene is commonly described using trajectories, tipping elements, and scenario pathways, which capture non-linear dynamics but do not provide a unified representation of regime structure and transitions at planetary scale. Here we introduce a [...]
Agricultural expansion and intensification in Brazil: A literature synthesis of dynamics, drivers, and implications
Published: 2026-03-24
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
Brazil’s long-term agricultural development reflects a complex interplay between human-driven land-use change and natural ecosystems. Since the 1960s, agricultural production in Brazil has expanded rapidly, driven by global food demand and national economic growth, through two primary pathways: (1) agricultural expansion via conversion of natural vegetation, particularly forests, and (2) [...]
WITHDRAWN: Sustaining Life on the Fault Line: Women’s Social Reproduction and Grassroots Disaster Governance in Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Beyond efficiency: Disentangling structural and behavioral sufficiency in U.S. residential decarbonization pathways
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Decarbonization strategies in the residential sector have largely focused on lowering the carbon intensity of energy supply and improving end-use efficiency. Sufficiency, defined as avoiding unnecessary energy demand while maintaining well-being, remains largely absent from national energy system analyses, obscuring the relative and combined roles of efficiency and sufficiency in reducing energy [...]
Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Published: 2026-03-13
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Inequality is rising and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent from each other. Inequality has historically been a major driver of social instability, and is increasing the risk of global catastrophes today. We demonstrate this by drawing on the rich literature around societal collapse and global catastrophe from both past and modern societies, highlighting the [...]