Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Non-Federal Climate Leadership Can Sustain U.S. Emissions Reductions Under Federal Policy Uncertainty
Published: 2026-04-27
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Recent federal climate policy rollbacks in the United States have slowed progress toward high-ambition climate targets under the Paris Agreement. In the absence of federal climate leadership, there is a growing need to better understand the potential impacts of non-federal climate action. We assess the impacts of recent changes in federal policy, non-federal climate leadership, and potential [...]
Overshoot pathways of 1.5°C: reversible biophysical change, irreversible socioeconomic impacts
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exceedance of 1.5°C in the near term is now unavoidable. Among pathways consistent with the remaining carbon budget, an overshoot pathway, in which exceedance is followed by decline to or below 1.5°C through net-negative emissions, is the best case of what remains achievable. Permanent exceedance produces strictly worse outcomes, yet even an overshoot pathway leaves lasting legacies. We propose a [...]
Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification
Published: 2026-04-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less [...]
Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]
Changing the Chilly Climate: Observations on Gender Diversity and Inclusion at a Geoscience Conference in the Netherlands
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Higher Education, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The aim of this study was to observe audience participation in a conference where the planned structures (presenters, keynotes and chairs) had an equal gender balance. The collected data can give an indication of the effectiveness of diversity and inclusion initiatives beyond the planned structures of the conference itself. We observed behaviours of attendees of the annual Dutch Earth and [...]
The Anthropocene as a Multi-Level Stability Landscape Regimes, Transitions, and Reorganization of the Human–Earth System
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Understanding the evolution of the human–Earth system over decadal-to-centennial timescales remains a central challenge in Earth system science. The Anthropocene is commonly described using trajectories, tipping elements, and scenario pathways, which capture non-linear dynamics but do not provide a unified representation of regime structure and transitions at planetary scale. Here we introduce a [...]
Agricultural expansion and intensification in Brazil: A literature synthesis of dynamics, drivers, and implications
Published: 2026-03-24
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
Brazil’s long-term agricultural development reflects a complex interplay between human-driven land-use change and natural ecosystems. Since the 1960s, agricultural production in Brazil has expanded rapidly, driven by global food demand and national economic growth, through two primary pathways: (1) agricultural expansion via conversion of natural vegetation, particularly forests, and (2) [...]
WITHDRAWN: Sustaining Life on the Fault Line: Women’s Social Reproduction and Grassroots Disaster Governance in Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Beyond efficiency: Sufficiency unlocks deep decarbonization of U.S. residential sector
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Decarbonization strategies in the residential sector have largely focused on lowering the carbon intensity of energy supply and improving end-use efficiency. Sufficiency, defined as avoiding unnecessary energy demand while maintaining well-being, remains largely unquantified in national energy system analyses. We quantify how structural sufficiency (dwelling size and housing form) and behavioral [...]
Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Published: 2026-03-13
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Inequality is rising and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent from each other. Inequality has historically been a major driver of social instability, and is increasing the risk of global catastrophes today. We demonstrate this by drawing on the rich literature around societal collapse and global catastrophe from both past and modern societies, highlighting the [...]
HIGH-RESOLUTION DIGITAL TERRAIN MODEL FOR THE ITALIAN TERRITORY
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Agriculture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Life Sciences, Mining Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
High-resolution digital terrain models are essential for environmental planning and territorial analyses, and provide foundations for geomorphological and hydrological applications, including flood and landslide modelling and geo-hydrological hazard and risk assessments. In Italy, airborne LiDAR surveys have improved the representation of terrain morphology in the last decade, but their coverage [...]
Validation of ICESat-2 ATL13 Version 7 Water Surface Elevation on Small High-Latitude Rivers: A Case Study of the River Dee and River Don, Aberdeenshire, Scotland
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Hydrology, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
Satellite Laser Altimetry represents an attractive opportunity to supplement the sparsely distributed in situ gauge network used to monitor rivers. The performance of satellite laser altimetry on small, high latitude streams has however been characterized as being poor. This research will be validating ICESat-2 ATL13 version 7 measured water surface elevations (WSE) for the River Dee (average [...]
From environmental observation to shared narratives through human-AI interaction
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
A structural bottleneck limits sustainability practices: many people can participate in environmental observation, but far fewer can participate in the synthesis work that turns observations into shared narratives that guide action. We term this disparity "synthesis inequality". Citizen-science programs have expanded public access to data collection, yet data interpretation largely remains [...]
Who holds Brazil’s biodiversity? The pivotal role of private landholders
Published: 2026-01-29
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
The urgency of tackling the biodiversity crisis across the tropics is clear, yet governance structures such as land tenure can act as barriers or enablers for conservation. Here, we focus on Brazil, a megadiverse country that has made major efforts to link deforestation to individual properties through self-reported environmental registries. Yet, how these efforts support biodiversity explicitly, [...]