Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
Irreducible Southern Ocean State Uncertainty due to Global Ocean Initial Conditions
Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
How do ocean initial conditions impact historical and future climate projections in Earth system models? To answer this question, we use the 50-member Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) large ensemble, in which individual ensemble members are initialized using a strategic combination of different oceanic initial states and different atmospheric perturbations. We show that global ocean heat [...]
Surface and subsurface damage caused by bullet impacts into sandstone
Published: 2021-08-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The shift of armed conflicts to more urbanised environments has increased risk to cultural her-itage sites. Small arms impacts are ubiquitous in these circumstances, yet the effects and mecha-nisms of damage caused are not well known. A sandstone target was shot under controlled con-ditions to investigate surface and subsurface damage. A 3D model of the damaged block, created by structure from [...]
Root foraging alters global patterns of ecosystem legacy from climate perturbations
Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate perturbations typically persist longer than the timescale of the forcing, a phenomenon that is broadly referred to as ecosystem legacy. Understanding the strength of legacy is critical for predicting ecosystem sensitivity to climate extremes and the extent to which persistent changes in land surface-atmosphere exchange might feedback onto the [...]
Data requirements to tackle global deforestation through mandatory due diligence
Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability
The world’s forests are highly threatened, mainly by agricultural expansion, driving biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions, and disproportionately impacting rights and livelihoods of indigenous peoples and local communities. Zero-deforestation voluntary commitments to address deforestation have not significantly reversed deforestation and have made even less progress in related human [...]
The Optimal Correlation Detector?
Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Correlation detectors are now used routinely in seismology to detect occurrences of signals bearing close resemblance to a reference waveform. They facilitate the detection of low-amplitude signals in significant background noise that may elude detection using energy detectors, and they associate a detected signal with a source location. Many seismologists use the fully normalized correlation [...]
Sea surface salinity subfootprint variability from a global high-resolution model
Published: 2021-08-20
Subjects: Oceanography
Subfootprint variability (SFV) is variability at a spatial scale smaller than the footprint of a sat-ellite, and cannot be resolved by satellite observations. It is important to quantify and understand as it contributes to the error budget for satellite data. The purpose of this study is to estimate the SFV for sea surface salinity (SSS) satellite observations. This is done using a [...]
Comprehensive aerial survey quantifies high methane emissions from the New Mexico Permian Basin
Published: 2021-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Limiting emissions of climate-warming methane from oil and gas (O&G) is a major opportunity for short-term climate benefits. We deploy a basin-wide airborne survey of the New Mexico Permian Basin, spanning 35,923 km^2, 26,292 active wells, and over 15,000 km of natural gas pipelines using an independently-validated hyperspectral methane point source detection and quantification system. The [...]
Fast anisotropic Mg and H diffusion in wet forsterite
Published: 2021-10-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mg diffusion, which is important for properties of forsterite such as conductivity and deformation, is a strong function of water content. The mechanism behind this effect, however, has not been fully elucidated. In this study we use Density Functional Theory to predict the diffusivity of 〖(2H)〗_Mg^X and we find that they are around 1000 times slower than H-free Mg vacancies V_Mg^''. In most [...]
Parsimonious velocity inversion applied to the Los Angeles Basin, CA
Published: 2021-08-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The proliferation of dense arrays promises to improve our ability to image geological structures at the scales necessary for accurate assessment of seismic hazard. However, combining the resulting local high-resolution tomography with existing regional models presents an ongoing challenge. We developed a framework based on the level-set method that infers where local data provide meaningful [...]
Linking earthquake magnitude-frequency statistics and stress in visco-frictional fault zone models
Published: 2021-08-27
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
The ability to estimate the likelihood of given earthquake magnitudes is critical for seismic hazard assessment. Earthquake magnitude-recurrence statistics are empirically linked to stress, yet which fault-zone processes explain this link remains debated. We use numerical models to reproduce the interplay between viscous creep and frictional sliding of a fault-zone, for which inter-seismic [...]
Spectral boundary integral method for simulating static and dynamic fields from a fault rupture in a poroelastodynamic solid
Published: 2021-08-24
Subjects: Applied Mechanics, Geophysics and Seismology, Partial Differential Equations, Tribology
The spectral boundary integral method is popular for simulating fault, fracture, and frictional processes at a planar interface. However, the method is less commonly used to simulate off-fault dynamic fields. Here we develop a spectral boundary integral method for poroelastodynamic solid. The method has two steps: first, a numerical approximation of a convolution kernel and second, an efficient [...]
No demonstrated link between sea-level and eruption history at Santorini
Published: 2021-08-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Previous studies have suggested a link between rates of sea-level variation and eruptions globally [McGuire et al., 1997], with Satow and coauthors [2021] presenting the first detailed comparison between sea-level change and eruptive history for a single island-volcano. They use robust, high-resolution ages for volcanic deposits at Santorini, combined with a 2D numerical model to correlate [...]
Fault rock heterogeneity can produce fault weakness and reduce fault stability
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Geological heterogeneity is abundant in crustal fault zones; however, its role in controlling the mechanical behaviour of faults is poorly constrained. Here, we present laboratory friction experiments on laterally heterogeneous faults, with patches of strong, rate-weakening quartz gouge and weak, rate-strengthening clay gouge. The experiments show that the heterogeneity leads to a significant [...]
Extreme smog challenge of India intensified by increasing lower tropospheric stability
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Air pollution in India severely impacts the air quality, public health and economy in one of the world’s most densely populated regions. Persistent agricultural fires during the late-autumn period and widespread winter-time pollution contribute to the extreme smog in south Asia, especially affecting the entire northern India. While the links between anthropogenic emissions, air quality and health [...]
A high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate change impact assessments
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°, comprises 5 climate models and includes two surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Two [...]