Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
The Empirical Bases for the Earth3 Model: Technical Notes on the Sustainable Development Goals and Planetary Boundaries
Published: 2018-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and Planetary Boundaries are assessed in the model. This includes data selection, sources, analysis and forecasting methods. We also present the threshold levels that have been chosen for the respective SDGs and Planetary Boundaries.
Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise
Published: 2018-10-01
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Sedimentology, Soil Science, Stratigraphy, Sustainability
Coastal Louisiana has lost about 5,000km2 of wetlands over the past century and concern exists whether remaining wetlands will persist while facing some of the world’s highest rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we analyse an unprecedented data set derived from 274 rod surface-elevation table-marker horizon stations, to determine present-day surface-elevation change, vertical accretion [...]
Quantifying natural delta variability using a multiple-point geostatistics prior uncertainty model
Published: 2018-10-01
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geology, Geomorphology, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Theory and Algorithms
We address the question of quantifying uncertainty associated with autogenic pattern variability in a channelized transport system by means of a modern geostatistical method. This question has considerable relevance for practical subsurface applications as well, particularly those related to uncertainty quantification relying on Bayesian approaches. Specifically, we show how the autogenic [...]
Estimating Transient Climate Response in a large-ensemble global climate model simulation
Published: 2018-10-11
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The transient climate response (TCR), defined to be the warming in near-surface air temperature after 70 years of a 1% per year increase in CO2, can be estimated from observed warming over the 19th and 20th centuries. Such analyses yield lower values than TCR estimated from global climate models (GCMs). This disagreement has been used to suggest that GCMs’ climate may be too sensitive to [...]
Modeling the effects of future urban planning scenarios on the Urban Heat Island in a complex region
Published: 2018-10-02
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Construction Engineering and Management, Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Because of the global warming, urban planning strategies must be investigated to reduce the building energy consumption and increase the thermal comfort in cities. In the framework of Energy Strategy 2050 of Switzerland, this research aim to highlight the impact of future climate change on urban planning and proposes strategies to help urban planners and policymakers face this new challenge [...]
An Evaluation between Time-term, Reciprocal Time and Refraction Tomography Analysis Methods for obtaining 2-D shallow Seismic Velocity Models over Synthetic Traveltimes
Published: 2018-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shallow seismic refraction is the principal geophysical method for environmental and engineering site investigations to image the shallow subsurface. We present an assessment of three inversion methods, namely Time-Term inversion, Reciprocal Time methods and Refraction tomography inversion by using commercial software (SeisImager™) by using a synthetic first-arrival-time dataset that was made by [...]
Segregation of bare and protonated Mg vacancies to dislocation cores in MgO
Published: 2018-09-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Water can be incorporated into the lattice of mantle minerals in the form of protons charge-balanced by the creation of cation vacancies. These protonated vacancies, when they interact with dislocations, increase strain rates by enhancing dislocation climb and, potentially, by reducing the Peierls barrier to glide. We use atomic scale simulations to investigate segregation of Mg vacancies to [...]
Atomistic simulations of Mg vacancy segregation to dislocation cores in forsterite
Published: 2018-09-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interactions between dislocations in olivine and extrinsic cation vacancies created under hydrous or oxidizing conditions may influence the rheology of the Earths upper mantle. In this study, we use atomic-scale simulations to calculate segregation energies for bare and protonated Mg vacancies to M1 and M2 sites in the core regions of [100](010) and [001](010) edge dislocations, and [100] and [...]
Backwater Controls on the Sedimentology, Kinematics and Geometry of Bar Deposits in Coastal Rivers
Published: 2018-09-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
The backwater reach of coastal rivers is associated with considerable spatial and temporal variability in water and sediment flux. Here we test the hypothesis that the spatial and temporal variability in water flux and particle sizes in transport result in systematic changes in the geometry of bank-attached bars across the backwater transition. Measured transverse slopes of bank-attached bars in [...]
Do surface lateral flows matter for data assimilation of soil moisture observations into hyperresolution land models?
Published: 2018-10-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Hyperresolution land modeling is expected to innovate the simulation of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. One of the major advantages of existing hyperresolution land models against conventional 1-demensional land surface models is that surface and subsurface lateral water flows can be explicitly simulated. Despite a lot of efforts on assimilating hydrological observations into the [...]
Estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites using nonparametric regression methods with spatial components
Published: 2018-09-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
Prediction of flood quantiles at ungauged sites has been investigated using several nonparametric regression methods including: local regression based on regions of influence, neural networks and generalized additive models (GAM). These methods were used to describe the relationship between run-off variables and catchment descriptors to predict flood quantiles. Previous work reported the presence [...]
A nationwide regional flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites using ROI/GLS with copulas and super regions
Published: 2018-09-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
Region of influence is a common approach to estimate runoff information at ungauged locations. To estimate flood quantiles from annual maximum discharges, the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) framework has been recommended to account for unequal sampling variance and intersite correlation, which requires a proper evaluation of the sampling covariance structure. Since some jurisdictions do not [...]
Paired organic matter and pyrite δ34S records reveal mechanisms of carbon, sulfur, and iron cycle disruption during Ocean Anoxic Event 2
Published: 2018-10-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sulfur (S) isotope compositions of pyrites in the sedimentary record have played an important part in our understanding of biogeochemical cycling in the geologic record. However, the kinetics of pyritization are complex and depend strongly on the reactivity and mineralogy of available iron. As a second major sink for sulfide in anoxic sediments, organic matter (OM) provides essential context for [...]
Interpretation of low‐temperature thermochronometer ages from tilted normal fault blocks
Published: 2018-09-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Low-temperature thermochronometry is a widely-used tool for dating the timing and rate of slip on normal faults. Rates are often derived from suites of footwall thermochronometer samples, but simple 2D regression of age vs. structural depth fails to account for the fact that rocks collected at similar elevations today experienced curved particle trajectories and variable velocities during fault [...]
Statistics and segmentation: Using Big Data to assess Cascades Arc compositional variability
Published: 2018-09-25
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Multivariate Analysis, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability, Volcanology
Primitive lavas erupted in the Cascades arc of western North America demonstrate significant patterns of along-arc heterogeneity. Such compositional diversity may be the result of differences in mantle melting processes, subduction geometry, regional tectonics, or compositions of the slab, mantle or overlying lithosphere. Previous authors have partitioned the arc into four geochemically distinct [...]