Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards

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John Hillier, Richard Dixon


Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, seasonal proxies for wintertime flooding and wind damage are used to map, at 1x1° resolution, the association between these perils across Europe within 600 years as realized in SEAS5 hindcast data. Paired areas of enhanced-suppressed correlation are identified (Scotland, Norway), and are shown to be created by orographically-enhanced rainfall (or shelter) from prevailing westerly storms.



Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Mathematics, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability



Published: 2020-06-17 05:44


CC BY Attribution 4.0 International