Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba 

Accepted open-access publication available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085524
Barrier island response to sea-level rise depends on their ability to transgress and move sediment onto and behind the barrier, either through flood-tidal delta deposition, or via overwash. Our understanding of these processes over decadal or longer timescales, however, is limited. Here we use a recently developed barrier island model (BRIE) to better understand the interplay between tidal dynamics, overwash fluxes, and sea-level rise on barrier coasts and barrier island stratigraphy. Model results suggest that in micro-tidal environments with large alongshore sediment transport fluxes, tidal inlets are ephemeral and migrate rapidly. These conditions lead to effective deposition of flood-tidal deltas and allow inlets to constitute most of the landward sediment flux. Whether barrier islands can survive sea-level rise depends on the combined landward sediment flux from overwash and flood-tidal delta deposition, likely making barrier islands with artificially stabilized inlets (via jetty construction or maintenance dredging) more vulnerable to sea-level rise.