Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Assessment of the community vulnerability to extreme spring floods: The case of the Amga River, central Yakutia, Siberia
Published: 2019-08-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Spring floods in Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, Siberian Russia, annually induce a significant damage to the population and infrastructure of communities of this Arctic region. Most major urban settlements are protected from floods by dams and dikes, so rural areas take a heavy beat. In 2018, spring flooding severely hit numerous rural communities in the Amga River basin, central Yakutia, exposing [...]
Onset of slip partitioning under oblique convergence within scaled physical models
Published: 2019-08-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Oblique convergent margins host slip partitioned faults with simultaneously active strike-slip and reverse faults. Such systems defy energetic considerations that a single oblique-slip fault accommodates deformation more efficiently than multiple faults. To investigate the development of slip partitioning, we record deformation throughout scaled experiments of wet kaolin over a low convergence [...]
Introduction of covariance components in slip inversion of geodetic data following a non-uniform spatial distribution and application to slip deficit rate estimation in the Nankai Trough subduction zone
Published: 2019-08-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
When spatial distribution of observation stations has bias in geodetic slip inversion, modeling errors in the inversion scheme may result in significant unnatural short-wave components in estimated slip distribution, which overfit to data. Combined use of both land and seafloor geodetic data in slip inversion often leads to such situations. To avoid overfitting, I proposed a method to [...]
Interannual, probabilistic prediction of water resources over Europe following the heatwave and drought 2018
Published: 2019-08-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The year 2018 was one of the hottest and driest years in Europe having a large impact on agriculture, ecosystems and society. The associated drought in central and northern Europe underpins the need for water resources predictions at the seasonal to interannual time scale. In this study, we propose a probabilistic, terrestrial prediction system including water resources utilizing the Terrestrial [...]
Joint sensing of bedload flux and water depth by seismic data inversion
Published: 2019-08-01
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Rivers are the fluvial conveyor belts routing sediment across the landscape. While there are proper techniques for continuous estimates of the flux of suspended solids, constraining bedload flux is much more challenging, typically involving extensive measurement infrastructure or labour-intensive manual measurements. Seismometers are potentially valuable alternatives to in-stream devices, [...]
SediNet: A configurable deep learning model for mixed qualitative and quantitative optical granulometry
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
I describe a configurable machine-learning framework to estimate a suite of continuous and categorical sedimentological properties from photographic imagery of sediment, and to exemplify how machine learning can be a powerful and flexible tool for automated quantitative and qualitative measurements from remotely sensed imagery. The model is tested on a large dataset consisting of 400 images and [...]
Energetics of interfacial interactions of hydrocarbon fluids with kerogen and calcite using molecular modeling
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the fluid-rock interactions is essential to characterize the behavior of petroleum fluids in reservoir formations. Such knowledge is difficult to obtain due to the heterogeneous nature of hydrocarbon systems. This study investigated the interactions of light oil molecules with kerogen and calcite using molecular dynamics simulations. Specifically, octane and octanthiol were used as [...]
Fracture and Weakening of Jammed Subduction Shear Zones, Leading to the Generation of Slow Slip Events
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Geodetic data have revealed that parts of subduction interfaces creep steadily or transiently. Transient slow slip events (SSEs) are typically interpreted as aseismic frictional sliding. However, SSEs may also occur via mixed visco‐brittle deformation, as observed in shear zones containing mixtures (mélange) of strong fractured clasts embedded in a weak visco‐brittle matrix. We test the [...]
Internal mouth bar variability and preservation of interflood beds in low-accommodation proximal deltaic settings (Cretaceous Dakota Group, New Mexico, USA)
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Mouth bars are the fundamental architectural elements of proximal deltaic successions. Understanding their internal architecture and deciphering the relative impact and complex interaction of coastal processes (fluvial-, tide- and wave-dominated) is paramount to the interpretation of ancient deltaic successions. This is particularly challenging in low-accommodation systems, because they are [...]
The Byers Basin: Jurassic-Cretaceous tectonic and depositional evolution of the forearc deposits of the South Shetland Islands and its implications for the northern Antarctic Peninsula
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
This paper addresses the Jurassic–Cretaceous stratigraphic evolution of fore-arc deposits exposed along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. In the South Shetland Islands, Upper Jurassic deep-marine sediments are uncomformably overlain by a Lower Cretaceous volcaniclastic sequence that crops out on Livingston, Snow and Low islands. U-Pb zircon ages are presented for the upper [...]
The Gondwanan margin in West Antarctica: insights from Late Triassic magmatism of the Antarctic Peninsula
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Triassic orthogneisses of the Antarctic Peninsula provide evidence for the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic geological evolution of southern Gondwana within Pangaea. These rocks are sporadically exposed in southeastern Graham Land and northwestern Palmer Land, although reliable geochronological, geochemical and isotopic data are sparse. We combine new geochronological (LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb), geochemical, [...]
Analog forecasting of extreme-causing weather patterns using deep learning
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Computational Engineering, Computer Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require ever-growing computing time/resources, but still, have difficulties with predicting weather extremes. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that is based on analog forecasting (prediction using past similar patterns) and employs a novel deep learning pattern-recognition technique (capsule neural networks, CapsNets) and impact-based [...]
Offsetting Carbon Capture and Storage costs with methane and geothermal energy production through reuse of a depleted hydrocarbon field coupled with a saline aquifer
Published: 2019-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Co-production of methane and geothermal energy from produced subsurface brines with onsite power generation and carbon capture has been proposed as a technically feasible means to reduce the costs of offshore carbon storage sites. In such a facility, methane is degassed from produced brine, this brine is then cooled allowing the extraction of heat and then CO2 is dissolved into it for reinjection [...]
Basal melting over Subglacial Lake Ellsworth and it catchment: insights from englacial layering
Published: 2019-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-water ‘stable’ subglacial lakes likely contain microbial life adapted in isolation to extreme environmental conditions. How water is supplied into a subglacial lake, and how water outflows, is important for understanding these conditions. Isochronal radio-echo layers have been used to infer where melting occurs above Lake Vostok and Lake Concordia in East Antarctica but have not been used [...]
Comment on Evaristo & McDonnell, Global analysis of streamflow response to forest management
Published: 2019-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Forests play a key role in the water cycle, so both planting and removing forests can affect streamflow. In a recent Nature article1, Evaristo and McDonnell used a gradient-boosted-tree model to conclude that streamflow response to forest removal is predominantly controlled by the potential water storage in the landscape, and that removing the worlds forests would contribute an additional 34,098 [...]