Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene
Published: 2020-01-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing during the geological record. GMST estimates from the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (~57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (~9 to 23°C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate [...]
Using a consistency factor for detection and attribution of anthropogenic impacts on phenological phases in Germany
Published: 2020-01-01
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An important consequence of climate change is the impact on the seasonal cycle of vegetation flora and fauna. Although it is generally understood that anthropogenic mechanisms play a major role in the warming trend of the climate and that the timing of such phases, especially spring timing events, depends largely on the temperature, the link has yet to be quantitatively shown for different kind [...]
Active deformation and Plio-Pleistocene fluvial reorganization of the western Kura Fold-Thrust Belt, Georgia: implications for the evolution of the Greater Caucasus mountains and seismic hazard
Published: 2019-12-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Since the Plio-Pleistocene, southward migration of shortening in the eastern part of the Greater Caucasus (GC) into the Kura foreland basin has progressively formed the Kura-Fold Thrust belt (KFTB) and Alazani piggyback basin, which separates the KFTB from the GC. Previous work argued for an eastward propagation of the KFTB, implying that the western portion in Georgia is the oldest, but this [...]
Goal-Oriented Error Estimation and Mesh Adaptation for Shallow Water Modelling
Published: 2019-12-31
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Engineering, Non-linear Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Partial Differential Equations, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical modelling frequently involves a diagnostic quantity of interest (QoI) - often of greater importance than the PDE solution - which we seek to accurately approximate. In the case of coastal ocean modelling the power output of a tidal turbine farm is one such example. Goal-oriented error estimation and mesh adaptation can be used to provide meshes which are well-suited to achieving this [...]
Stochastic, empirically‐informed model of landscape dynamics and its application to deforestation scenarios
Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Land change including deforestation undermines the sustainability of the environment. Using data on 1992‐2015 pattern change in over 1.7 million meso‐scale landscapes worldwide we developed a stochastic model of long‐term landscape dynamics. The model suggests that observed heterogeneous landscapes are short‐lived stages in a transition between quasi‐stable homogeneous landscapes of different [...]
Seismic reflection data reveal the 3D structure of the newly discovered Exmouth Dyke Swarm, offshore NW Australia
Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dyke swarms are common on Earth and other planetary bodies, comprising arrays of dykes that can extend laterally for 10’s to 1000’s of kilometres. The vast extent of such dyke swarms, and their presumed rapid emplacement, means they can significantly influence a variety of planetary processes, including continental break-up, crustal extension, resource accumulation, and volcanism. Determining the [...]
Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited
Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best-studied paleoclimatic intervals, offers a prime opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from paleothermometers, but the uneven distribution of the proxies, as well as their uncertainties, has [...]
Back-propagating super-shear rupture in the 2016 Mw7.1 Romanche transform fault earthquake
Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
How an earthquake rupture propagates strongly influences potentially destructive ground shaking. Complex ruptures often involve slip along multiple faults, masking information on the frictional behaviour of fault zones. Geometrically smooth ocean transform fault plate boundaries offer a favourable environment to study fault dynamics, because strain is accommodated along a single, wide fault zone [...]
Fault-zone damage promotes pulse-like rupture and back-propagating fronts via quasi-static effects
Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Damage zones are ubiquitous components of faults that may affect earthquake rupture. Simulations show that pulse-like rupture can be induced by the dynamic effect of waves reflected by sharp fault zone boundaries. Here we show that pulses can appear in a highly damaged fault zone even in the absence of reflected waves. We use quasi-static scaling arguments and quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle [...]
Effects of aseismic ridge subduction on geochemistry of frontal arc magmas
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Aseismic ridge subduction is considered to exert major controls on volcanic activity, formation of porphyry Cu-Au deposits and the generation of juvenile Earth’s crust. Yet, there are almost no studies that have addressed in a systematic way the effects of this process on the geochemistry of arc magmas. Here we explore the role of the subducted aseismic Carnegie ridge on modulating frontal arc [...]
Scheduling of Twin Telescopes and the Impact on Troposphere and UT1 Estimation
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recently, several VGOS twin telescopes in Europe were completed. We examine the use of VGOS twin telescopes by a new scheduling approach. This ap- proach is based on integer linear programming and cre- ates uniform distributed observations over time. Sev- eral VLBI intensive sessions are rescheduled involving the VGOS twin telescopes and the impact on the tropo- sphere and UT1 estimation is [...]
Comment on ‘Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level’
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Here, we provide a comment in response to a recently published paper ‘Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level’ by Rogelj and Schleussner (2019). We note a number of errors in their critique of the use of GWP* to relate cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants, argue that their logic is flawed, their ethical considerations are narrow and [...]
Fluid surface coverage showing the controls of rock mineralogy on the wetting state
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The wetting state is an important control on flow in subsurface multi fluid phase systems, e.g., carbon storage and oil production. Advances in X-ray imaging allow us to characterise the wetting state using imagery of fluid arrangement within the pores of rocks. We derived a model from equilibrium thermodynamics relating fluid coverage of rock surfaces to wettability and fluid saturation. The [...]
Characterisation and controls on mineral-sorbed organic matter from a variety of groundwater environments
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Detailed investigations into natural groundwater organic matter (OM) as carbon sources or sinks in the natural carbon cycle are generally limited. Groundwater OM concentration and composition is altered by biodegradation and sorption to minerals. In the saturated zone of an aquifer, dissolved organic matter (DOM) may represent a significant fraction of the natural groundwater dissolved organic [...]
Policy Bridge: Air Quality Impacts from Oil and Natural Gas Development in Colorado
Published: 2019-12-13
Subjects: Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The rise of hydraulic fracturing techniques has fostered rapid growth of oil and natural gas extraction in areas across the United States. In the Denver-Julesburg Basin (DJB), which mostly overlaps with Weld County in the Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) north of the City of Denver Metropolitan Area (DMA), the well drilling has increasingly approached, and in many instances moved into urban [...]