Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]
Interplay of slow-slip faults beneath Mexico City induces intense seismicity over months
Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In February 2023, a long seismic sequence began in western Mexico City causing widespread panic and some damage to housing infrastructure. On May 11 and December 14, two Mw3.2 mainshocks occurred at less than 700 m depth. Unprecedented satellite interferograms captured tectonic deformations in the two epicentral zones during the days surrounding the earthquakes. Data analysis revealed extended [...]
Probability of Detection and Multi-Sensor Persistence of Methane Emissions from Coincident Airborne and Satellite Observations
Published: 2024-07-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellites are becoming a widely used measurement tool for methane detection and quantification. The landscape of satellite instruments with some methane point-source quantification capabilities is growing. Combining information across available sensor platforms could be pivotal for understanding trends and uncertainties in source-level emissions. However, to effectively combine information [...]
Dynamic Rupture Modeling in a Complex Fault Zone with Distributed and Localized Damage
Published: 2024-06-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Active fault zones have complex structural and geometric features that are expected to affect earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation with shear and volumetric deformation, and arrest. Earthquakes, in turn, dynamically activate co-seismic off-fault damage that may be both distributed and localized, affecting fault zone geometry and rheology, and further influencing post-seismic deformation and [...]
Exploration of Climate Data and Temperature Forecasting using Machine Learning
Published: 2024-06-28
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this short communication, a concept has been presented to model geographical data to predict future temperature of Tabuk, region. Machine learning has been applied to the weather station data to develop a prediction model. The preliminary results are promising and encouraging and are envisaging to further this research towards the determination of unknown temperature rise in the region. This [...]
Radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and 14C), compositions, and erupted volumes of volcanoes of the Valle de Santiago area (Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field, México)
Published: 2024-06-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Valle de Santiago (VS) area is located in the NE sector of the Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field, within the central part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). Based on geological mapping of a ~2,800 km2 quadrangle, 40Ar/39Ar and radiocarbon dating, morphometry, and whole-rock chemical and petrographic analyses of the volcanic products, we established the stratigraphy and eruptive [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments in the Southeast United States Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Many studies have examined future changes in TC precipitation; however, few have considered changes owing to differences in the synoptic environment during landfall. Here, we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United [...]
WITHDRAWN: It’s Not Climate Change: It’s Overpopulation
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Critical transition in barrier islands’ dune ecosystem and the sudden loss of barrier’s resilience
Published: 2024-06-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Barrier islands cover a large fraction of US coasts and support unique ecosystems and coastal infrastructure. The 'barrier' function of a barrier island depends on coastal dunes that can prevent storm flooding and widespread ecosystem loss. Furthermore, dune-less barriers are more susceptible to breaching and potential drowning under sea level rise. Here we study the transition from [...]
Modeling the Impact of Storm Surge Flooding and Associated Costs on North Carolina Coastal Region Corn and Soybean Fields via Remote Sensing
Published: 2024-06-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Hurricane and tropical storm-driven storm surge flooding places coastal farmlands at high risk of crop damage and soil salinization. The damage can total to millions of dollars in costs and force farmers to abandon coastal fields. Additionally, many agricultural, and often rural, areas are unable to access accurate and reliable flood-risk projection maps and analyses that can inform prevention [...]
The Impact Measurement and Application of Conservation System (IMACS): A Review of a Framework for Impact Measurement, Application of Conservation and a Return to Sustainable Conditions
Published: 2024-06-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Impact Measurement and Application of Conservation System (IMACS) was recently described in ten preprint papers. IMACS represents the first “first principals” based system for measurement of damaging and conserving impacts and the calculation of sustainabilities for products, services and individuals. IMACS distinguishes “participating” and [...]
Power optimisation of a rogue-wave energy device in a contraction
Published: 2024-06-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We consider optimisation of a wave-energy device placed in a contraction consisting of unidirectional wave-induced buoy motion coupled to a tubular electromagnetic generator. First, optimisation of the generator is achieved by using three induction coils instead of one. Second, geometric optimisation is explored for two contraction-shape parameters. Finally, we discuss the advantages of using [...]
The direction of core soldification in asteroids: implications for dynamo generation.
Published: 2024-06-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Paleomagnetic studies of meteorites over the past two decades have revealed that the cores of multiple meteorite parent bodies, including those of certain chondritic groups, generated dynamo fields as they crystallised. However, uncertainties in the direction and mode of core solidification in asteroid-sized bodies have meant using the timings and durations of these fields to constrain parent [...]
The migration of hydrogen in sedimentary basins
Published: 2024-06-13
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale, subsurface hydrogen migration is essential for natural hydrogen exploration and for hydrogen storage assessment. The unique properties of hydrogen make that the timescales of hydrogen migration within geological basins vary from thousands of years to days. Within the shallow Earth, diffusive and advective transport mechanisms are dependent on a wide [...]
Implementing machine learning to establish a relationship between coal ash spread and lined vs. unlined sites using publicly available data
Published: 2024-06-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The fuel combustion process within coal power plants causes a significant amount of waste, called coal ash, often stored in slush basins. Due to low maintenance and lack of proper regulations, coal ash ponds have a high tendency to contaminate nearby groundwater sources. Without a simple way to ascertain whether the drinking water and soil near a private residential area is contaminated, citizens [...]