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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Human Civilization will Collapse (High Confidence): A Compendium of Relevant Biophysical, Political, Economic, Military, Health, and Psychological Information on Climate Change

Demetrios Karis

Published: 2024-01-11
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

Human civilization will not collapse from the direct effects of climate change, but rather from the secondary effects of crop failures, infectious diseases, and armed conflict. The root cause of the climate crisis is the Earth’s energy imbalance: more energy is arriving at the Earth from the sun than is being radiated back out into space. This is occurring because we have been cutting down [...]

Empowering the Next-Generation Climate Scientists: Insights from the 2023 Forecasters’ WEB (ForWEB) Exchange Program/Hackathon at KNUST, Ghana

Jeffrey N.A. Aryee, Caleb Mensah, Eric Dorkutso Ayitah, et al.

Published: 2024-01-10
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In response to the escalating climate change issues, the Forecasters' WEB (ForWEB), established by the Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, KNUST, collaborated with the Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, UENR to host the first, exchange program/hackathon. The program aimed at equipping students with knowledge, practical skills, and a collaborative ethos for addressing the [...]

2D and 3D imaging of ‘tunnel-shaped’ weathering features in soil grains: a biological origin?

Ria Louise Mitchell, Paul Kenrick, Andrew Bodey, et al.

Published: 2024-01-10
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The evolution of the first plant-based terrestrial ecosystems some ~450 million years ago had a profound effect on the development of soils and shifts in global biogeochemical cycles, notably drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere. In some part these shifts were due to biologically mediated weathering of mineral grains, which until plants evolved, had not been a significant contributor to [...]

Machine-Learning Approaches for Assessing Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in Ghana, West Africa

Jesse Gilbert, Jeffrey N.A. Aryee, Mary Jessie Adjei

Published: 2024-01-08
Subjects: Education, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In the field of environmental health, assessing air pollution exposure has historically posed challenges, primarily due to sparse ground observation networks. To overcome this limitation, satellite remote sensing of aerosols provides a valuable tool for monitoring air quality and estimating particulate matter concentration (PM) at the surface. In this study, we employ two predictive models to [...]

Designing and describing climate change impact attribution studies: a guide to common approaches

Colin J Carlson, Dann Mitchell, Tamma Carleton, et al.

Published: 2024-01-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Public Health, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Impact attribution is an emerging transdisciplinary sub-discipline of detection and attribution, focused on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change. Here, we provide an overview of common end-to-end frameworks in impact attribution, focusing on examples relating to the human health impacts of climate change. We propose a typology of study designs based on whether [...]

Hydrogen wettability and capillary pressure in Clashach sandstone for underground hydrogen storage

Eike Marie Thaysen, Zaid Jangda, Aliakbar Hassanpouryouzband, et al.

Published: 2024-01-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Hydrogen (H2) can support the transition to net-zero carbon (C) emissions by facilitating increased renewable energy use by acting as an energy store to balance supply and demand. Underground H2 storage in porous media is investigated due to its high capacity and economical price. An important unknown in underground porous media H2 storage is the volume of recoverable H2 which is partly [...]

Megathrust locking encoded in subduction landscapes

Bar Oryan, Jean-Arthur Olive, Romain Jolivet, et al.

Published: 2024-01-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Locked areas of subduction megathrusts are increasingly found to coincide with landscape features sculpted over hundreds of kyrs, yet the mechanisms that underlie such correlations remain elusive. We show that interseismic locking gradients induce increments of irreversible strain across the overriding plate manifested predominantly as distributed seismicity. Summing these increments over [...]

Aggregation - Disaggregation Cycles in ERA 5 Reanalysis

Vijit Maithel, Larissa Back

Published: 2024-01-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Understanding convective aggregation is very important for understanding tropical climate and climate sensitivity. However, we still lack a full understanding of how aggregation evolves in the real world or what phenomena and scales are analogous to the self-aggregation observed in idealized models. In this study, we apply the moist static energy (MSE) variance budget framework to ERA5 reanalysis [...]

A shake and a surge: Assessing the possibility of an earthquake-triggered eruption at Steamboat Geyser

Mara H. Reed, Anna Barth, Taka'aki Taira, et al.

Published: 2024-01-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

When and why earthquakes trigger volcano and geyser eruptions remains unclear. In September 2022, Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone, USA erupted 8.25 hours after a local M3.9 earthquake—an improbable coincidence based on the geyser’s eruption intervals. We leverage monitoring data from the surrounding geyser basin to determine if the earthquake triggered this eruption. We calculate a peak ground [...]

Microbial indicators and detection of Cu-sulfide ore mineralization

Bianca Patrizia Iulianella Phillips, rachel simister, Shane D Rich, et al.

Published: 2024-01-02
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science

Rapid electrification of society is placing unprecedented demand on critical mineral and metal resources. New strategies and technologies are thus needed to promote mineral discovery in regions where deposits are likely buried deep under soil and glacial till. We show that microbial communities from different soil types change in composition in response to amendment with copper. We also show [...]

New U-Pb zircon data and patterns of collision magmatism in the Northern Highlands of Scotland

Careen MacRae, Iain Neill, Edward D. Dempsey, et al.

Published: 2023-12-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Northern Highlands Terrane of the Scottish Caledonides contain a record of Palaeozoic collision magmatism which overlaps with Baltica – Laurentia convergence and the Scandian Orogeny. Here, there remain gaps in our understanding of the relationship between collision dynamics and the spatial-temporal distribution of Caledonian intrusions. In this study, the Strontian and Helmsdale plutons and [...]

A Systematic Review of Machine Learning Algorithms in Groundwater Level Simulations and Forecasting

Jesse Gilbert, Cyril Dziedzorm Boateng, Jeffrey N.A. Aryee, et al.

Published: 2023-12-29
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Over two billion individuals worldwide rely on subterranean water as their primary reservoir of clean water. Ensuring the sustainable management of this heavily burdened resource necessitates a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of groundwater reserves. This becomes even more critical as water resources face escalating demands resulting from socioeconomic growth, population expansion, and the [...]

Deep-Water Fan Hierarchy: Assumptions, Evidence, and Numerical Modelling Analysis

Ibrahim Tinni Tahiru, Peter Burgess, Christopher Stevenson

Published: 2023-12-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Submarine fan strata are commonly described and interpreted assuming a nested, hierarchical organisation of elements, from beds, to lobe elements, lobes and lobe complexes. However, describing outcrop and subsurface strata following a particular conceptual method or model is never evidence in itself that the model or method accurately reflects the true nature of the strata. To develop better [...]

Geochronology and geodynamics of collision magmatism in the Southern Uplands-Down-Longford Terrane in Scotland and Ireland

Chloe Gemmell, Iain Neill, David Currie, et al.

Published: 2023-12-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The relationship between igneous activity and the geodynamics of subduction and collision is uncertain in northern Britain and Ireland, which lay on the Laurentian margin during accretion of Baltica and peri-Gondwanan terranes during the Palaeozoic Caledonian - Acadian orogenies. There is uncertainty over the relevance and timing of Iapetus slab breakoff beneath the Laurentian margin, and modest [...]

On sea ice emission modeling for MOSAiC's L-band radiometric measurements

Ferran Hernández-Macià, Carolina Gabarro, Marcus Huntemann, et al.

Published: 2023-12-21
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The retrieval of sea ice thickness using L-band passive remote sensing requires robust models for emission from sea ice. In this work, measurements obtained from surface-based radiometers during the MOSAiC expedition are assessed with the Burke, Wilheit and SMRT radiative transfer models. These models encompass distinct methodologies: radiative transfer with/without wave coherence effects, and [...]

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