Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
On the Emergence of Tortured Phrases: A Threat to Scientific Integrity - The Example of 'Heavy Metal'
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
For some time, I have advocated for banning the term "heavy metal" from scientific literature due to its frequent misuse, suggesting "potentially toxic element" as a replacement. The rise of "tortured phrases," generated by paraphrasing software to avoid plagiarism detection, now further threatens scientific integrity. These nonsensical terms complicate comprehension and dilute the clarity [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived [...]
Volcanic arc structure controlled by liquid focusing from the slab — evidence from boron isotopes and trace elements
Published: 2024-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The rates and pathways of material transport from subducting plates to arc volcanoes control the long-term chemical evolution of the atmosphere, continents, and mantle. Arc magma compositions are commonly used as proxies for the state of the slab directly below a volcanic vent, under the assumption of vertical transport from the slab to the surface. Here, we present new boron (B) isotope and [...]
Counting currents: resolving contradictory records of eruption history created by unsteady pyroclastic density current dynamics
Published: 2024-07-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ignimbrite lithofacies analysis can be used to interpret the number and behaviour of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) generated during a Plinian eruption, through identification of flow units in the rock record. However, pyroclastic stratigraphic successions are rarely complete and without breaks around a volcano, complicating regional analysis of hiatus markers. This study uses entrachron [...]
Modeling sediment compaction beneath ice lenses during frost heave
Published: 2024-07-13
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Frost heave occurs when the ground swells during freezing conditions due to the growth of ice lenses in the subsurface. The mechanics of ice-infiltrated sediment, or frozen fringe, influences the formation and evolution of ice lenses. As the frozen fringe thickens during freezing, progressive unloading can result in dilation of the pore space and the formation of new ice lenses. Compaction can [...]
Seamounts control subducted carbonate recycling in Central America – evidence from stable Sr isotopes
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Accurate estimates of carbon recycling efficiency at subduction zones are crucial for understanding the long-term evolution of the planet’s climate. Estimating subducting carbon recycling efficiency is difficult, however, due to magmatic degassing deep within the crust. Stable strontium (δ88Sr) isotopes have the potential to serve as an additional proxy for carbonate recycling due to carbonate’s [...]
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]
Interplay of slow-slip faults beneath Mexico City induces intense seismicity over months
Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In February 2023, a long seismic sequence began in western Mexico City causing widespread panic and some damage to housing infrastructure. On May 11 and December 14, two Mw3.2 mainshocks occurred at less than 700 m depth. Unprecedented satellite interferograms captured tectonic deformations in the two epicentral zones during the days surrounding the earthquakes. Data analysis revealed extended [...]
Probability of Detection and Multi-Sensor Persistence of Methane Emissions from Coincident Airborne and Satellite Observations
Published: 2024-07-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellites are becoming a widely used measurement tool for methane detection and quantification. The landscape of satellite instruments with some methane point-source quantification capabilities is growing. Combining information across available sensor platforms could be pivotal for understanding trends and uncertainties in source-level emissions. However, to effectively combine information [...]
Dynamic Rupture Modeling in a Complex Fault Zone with Distributed and Localized Damage
Published: 2024-06-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Active fault zones have complex structural and geometric features that are expected to affect earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation with shear and volumetric deformation, and arrest. Earthquakes, in turn, dynamically activate co-seismic off-fault damage that may be both distributed and localized, affecting fault zone geometry and rheology, and further influencing post-seismic deformation and [...]
Exploration of Climate Data and Temperature Forecasting using Machine Learning
Published: 2024-06-28
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this short communication, a concept has been presented to model geographical data to predict future temperature of Tabuk, region. Machine learning has been applied to the weather station data to develop a prediction model. The preliminary results are promising and encouraging and are envisaging to further this research towards the determination of unknown temperature rise in the region. This [...]
Radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and 14C), compositions, and erupted volumes of volcanoes of the Valle de Santiago area (Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field, México)
Published: 2024-06-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Valle de Santiago (VS) area is located in the NE sector of the Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field, within the central part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). Based on geological mapping of a ~2,800 km2 quadrangle, 40Ar/39Ar and radiocarbon dating, morphometry, and whole-rock chemical and petrographic analyses of the volcanic products, we established the stratigraphy and eruptive [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments in the Southeast United States Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Many studies have examined future changes in TC precipitation; however, few have considered changes owing to differences in the synoptic environment during landfall. Here, we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United [...]
WITHDRAWN: It’s Not Climate Change: It’s Overpopulation
Published: 2024-06-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics