Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Relating Multi-Scale Plume Detection and Area Estimates of Methane Emissions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
Published: 2024-07-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Methodologies for inferring surface emissions of atmospheric trace gases can be categorized into plume detection and area-scale estimation. Plume detections are observations of emissions from either individual or clustered point sources. Area estimates are derived from top-down atmospheric flux inversion models or bottom-up inventories, which infer mean emissions typically over spatial scales [...]
Extreme warming of Amazon waters in a changing climate
Published: 2024-07-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In 2023, an unprecedented drought and heatwave severely impacted Amazon waters, leading to high mortality of fishes and river dolphins. Five of 10 lakes monitored showed exceptionally high daytime temperatures (>37°C), with one large lake reaching up to 41°C in the entire ~2-m deep water column, with up to 13°C of diel variation. Modeling show that high solar radiation, reduced water depth and [...]
Landscape response will reduce glacier sensitivity to climate change in High Mountain Asia
Published: 2024-07-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In High Mountain Asia (HMA) climate change threatens mountain water resources as glaciers melt, and the resulting changes in runoff and water availability are hypothesised to have considerable negative impacts on ecological and human systems. Numerous assessments of the ways in which glaciers will respond to climate warming have been published over the past decade. Many have used climate model [...]
Sensitivity of modelled mass balance and runoff to representations of debris and accumulation on the Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada
Published: 2024-07-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Runoff contributions from glacierized catchments are changing in response to accelerating mass loss. We reconstruct the 1980-2022 mass balance, runoff and water budget of the ~70% glacierized Kaskawulsh River headwaters in Yukon, Canada, using an enhanced temperature-index model driven by downscaled and bias-corrected reanalysis data. Debris is treated using melt-scaling factors based on [...]
Ground Motion Characteristics of Subshear and Supershear Ruptures in the Presence of Sediment Layers
Published: 2024-07-19
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We investigate the impact of sediment layers on ground motion characteristics during subshear and supershear rupture growth. Our findings suggest that sediment layers may lead to local supershear propagation, affecting ground motion, especially in the fault parallel (FP) direction. In contrast to homogeneous material models, we find that in the presence of sediment layers, a larger fault normal [...]
On the Emergence of Tortured Phrases: A Threat to Scientific Integrity - The Example of 'Heavy Metal'
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
For some time, I have advocated for banning the term "heavy metal" from scientific literature due to its frequent misuse, suggesting "potentially toxic element" as a replacement. The rise of "tortured phrases," generated by paraphrasing software to avoid plagiarism detection, now further threatens scientific integrity. These nonsensical terms complicate comprehension and dilute the clarity [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived [...]
Volcanic arc structure controlled by liquid focusing from the slab — evidence from boron isotopes and trace elements
Published: 2024-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The rates and pathways of material transport from subducting plates to arc volcanoes control the long-term chemical evolution of the atmosphere, continents, and mantle. Arc magma compositions are commonly used as proxies for the state of the slab directly below a volcanic vent, under the assumption of vertical transport from the slab to the surface. Here, we present new boron (B) isotope and [...]
Counting currents: resolving contradictory records of eruption history created by unsteady pyroclastic density current dynamics
Published: 2024-07-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ignimbrite lithofacies analysis can be used to interpret the number and behaviour of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) generated during a Plinian eruption, through identification of flow units in the rock record. However, pyroclastic stratigraphic successions are rarely complete and without breaks around a volcano, complicating regional analysis of hiatus markers. This study uses entrachron [...]
Modeling sediment compaction beneath ice lenses during frost heave
Published: 2024-07-13
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Frost heave occurs when the ground swells during freezing conditions due to the growth of ice lenses in the subsurface. The mechanics of ice-infiltrated sediment, or frozen fringe, influences the formation and evolution of ice lenses. As the frozen fringe thickens during freezing, progressive unloading can result in dilation of the pore space and the formation of new ice lenses. Compaction can [...]
Seamounts control subducted carbonate recycling in Central America – evidence from stable Sr isotopes
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Accurate estimates of carbon recycling efficiency at subduction zones are crucial for understanding the long-term evolution of the planet’s climate. Estimating subducting carbon recycling efficiency is difficult, however, due to magmatic degassing deep within the crust. Stable strontium (δ88Sr) isotopes have the potential to serve as an additional proxy for carbonate recycling due to carbonate’s [...]
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]
Interplay of slow-slip faults beneath Mexico City induces intense seismicity over months
Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In February 2023, a long seismic sequence began in western Mexico City causing widespread panic and some damage to housing infrastructure. On May 11 and December 14, two Mw3.2 mainshocks occurred at less than 700 m depth. Unprecedented satellite interferograms captured tectonic deformations in the two epicentral zones during the days surrounding the earthquakes. Data analysis revealed extended [...]
Probability of Detection and Multi-Sensor Persistence of Methane Emissions from Coincident Airborne and Satellite Observations
Published: 2024-07-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellites are becoming a widely used measurement tool for methane detection and quantification. The landscape of satellite instruments with some methane point-source quantification capabilities is growing. Combining information across available sensor platforms could be pivotal for understanding trends and uncertainties in source-level emissions. However, to effectively combine information [...]